Tuesday, December 7, 2021



Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night:
Cloudy with possible snow flurries. Low: 26

Cloudy.High: 44


Wednesday Night:
Clear. Low: 33

Clear. High: 50

Thursday Night
Clear . Low: 46


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Discussion: It would be wise to wear a coat this week, as cold winds are going to blow through Missouri Tuesday and Wednesday night. Tuesday night will be the coldest temperature seen this week, that being in the upper 20s due to the cold westerly winds of 10-20 mph. The weather pattern will begin shifting this week that will bring about southerly flow and thus, warmer weather.



Forecasters: Watts, VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 12/06/21 5:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:  

The 12Z run of NAM40 was used for this forecast. The NAM and GFS both reached temperatures that remained accurate with what was observed at Sanborn Field, yet the NAM seemed to have better placement of the trough-ridge-trough pattern. During this forecast period, a very meridional flow takes stage across the CONUS, leading to variable weather over the next few days.
A positively tilted trough axis drapes over mid-Missouri on Tuesday night, as displayed at 300mb. This causes a wind shift from westerly to northwesterly on Wednesday morning, before a ridge pushes the trough out east and takes its place by afternoon. Yet another trough follows behind, making its way to the Midwest on Thursday, this time being a negatively tilted shortwave. Again, the pattern offers a wind shift, and southwest winds bring warmer air to Missouri on Thursday night.
The aforementioned trough on Tuesday night is seen again at 500mb, deepening off to Missouri's east. This is followed by a ridge on Wednesday, meaning fair (but still cold) weather remains. Vorticity advects into the area on Thursday morning, but quickly pushes out to the northeast.
Moisture follows along the current trough at 700mb over northern Missouri, making its way southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The ridge on Wednesday brings positive Omega values on Thursday, followed by a southwesterly flow.
850mb shows more of the same, again broadcasting the ridge over Missouri on Wednesday. An LLJ along with the backside of the ridge brings a strong southerly flow to Missouri on Thursday night.
Solenoids are seen on the surface analysis as cold air advects into the area on Tuesday. Columbia, and most of Missouri, remains on the cold side of the 540 line until Wednesday morning. There is a slight chance for snow flurries overnight. WAA brushes into Missouri late Thursday night, coming from both the south and the west. Due to the timing of it, the WAA brings a halt to the nighttime cooling, and temperatures will remain steady until sunrise brings with it a significant warm-up.
NAM Soundings aided cloud and temperature forecasting, and temperatures showed on the 12Z run had a significant warming trend in comparison to previous Campus Weather Forecasts. The temperatures on this forecast show quite a jump due to the model that we used, and its accuracy for temperatures seen today.

Future forecasters should keep an eye out for a chance of rain Friday morning.



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