Monday, November 1, 2021


Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night:
Cloudy. Occasional showers. Low: 34


Becoming mostly sunny. High: 47


Tuesday Night:
Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 33


Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: 49

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear Low: 31

Thanks to for the icons! 


With temperatures well below-normal the past few days combined with cloud cover for Mid-Missouri, it looks like this trend is not ending with tonight's lows hovering in the mid-30s. Mid-Missouri saw a few showers today which will continue to linger into the overnight hours becoming partly cloudy tomorrow as a high pressure system moves into the region. Some areas could possibly see pockets of sunshine, but most of the area will be cloudy with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Clouds may stick around for Tuesday night as temperatures take a dip to near freezing temperatures. Going into the middle of the week, as highs climb into the upper 40s on Wednesday, clouds will clear out by the evening Wednesday. For the first time this fall, below freezing temperatures are in the forecast for Wednesday night with lows in the lower 30s.



Forecasters: Alexander, Gromada, Gotsch

Date Issued: 11/01/21 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion:  

It is hard to believe that we have below freezing temperatures in the forecast! Cold temperatures, rain and possibly some fog are in store for us this week. The main focus of this forecasting period is the lingering precipitation this evening and the freezing temperatures on Wednesday night. Due to the temperatures being such an important factor in this forecast, we used the GFS over the NAM due to its handling of recent and current temperatures.

Currently scattered showers persists overhead and will for the next few hours until most of the moisture pushes south, where it will stay for the next few days. A line of light vorticity will assist in relocating this moisture to southern Missouri. Accumulation for tonight's precipitation event may total up to .05 inch.

Do not be surprised to see isolated fog after midnight and into Tuesday morning. While the ingredients for fog are present, the 5 knot winds tonight and a weak inversion will likely keep fog from forming in all but low-lying and sheltered areas. 

The sky is expected to transition from cloudy to becoming mostly sunny Tuesday. Cloud conditions then become partly cloudy tomorrow night and remain that way until Wednesday night, when they are expected to become more sparse. An upper-level trough is expected to push into the area Wednesday night. It will help clear the sky and bring more northerly winds to the Mid-Mississippi Valley and light isolated vorticity. This will likely assist in cooling the atmosphere causing our temperatures to take the polar plunge and bring freezing temperatures to the region. There is deeper moisture to our south, near the MO and AR boarder. If this moisture were to shift north on Wednesday, we could expect more cloud cover and a possible reprieve from the first freeze of the year as the moisture could act as a blanket and keep temperatures above freezing. This case scenario is not likely to occur and Columbia looks to remain dry throughout this time period.

The next forecasting shift should watch the locations of the upper-level trough over Iowa and the moisture over the MO/AR boarder on Wednesday. If these two things meet up, precipitation is possible, and as stated above, we may stay above freezing. This could cause a chain reaction creating warmer temperatures throughout the later half of the week.


No comments:

Post a Comment