Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: 83
The departing area of low-pressure that brought our region a dreary couple of days will slowly move off to our east, allowing for a slow decrease in cloud cover throughout the day on Thursday. Temperatures, in turn, will be cooler, with highs in the lower 70s on Thursday. For Friday and beyond, a ridge of high pressure to our southwest will allow for a warmer temperature pattern to influence the area with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday and Saturday, respectively. In turn, mostly sunny conditions can be expected on both days - just in time for Homecoming weekend at Mizzou.
Forecasters: - McMullen, Noblitt, Cochran
Date Issued: 10/6/21 5:00 PM CST
The 6Z run of the GFS20 was used in today's forecast. Both the GFS and NAM initialized current conditions and atmospheric composition well, though the GFS was used out of personal preference. Soundings were used for the Columbia region to pinpoint temperature and moisture gradients.
250-mb plots of heights, winds, and divergence displays a low pressure
system situated on the Missouri-Arkansas border, which moves off to the NNE, cutting through eastern Missouri and exiting by 9z Friday. The LPS currently influences conditions in the state, but will bring low chances of rain and mostly overcast skies as we are situated on the western side of the system. As this system leaves, a ridge over the Texas forms and begins to push northeastward. The high pressure system will
bring the jet streak into our upper levels as the forecast period comes
to a close.
The 500-mb plots of heights and vorticity show the LPS following a similar path as in the 250-mb plot. This system will bring in decreasing vorticity values with traces of PVA mostly gone by Friday 9z as well. As the LPS departs, so to does the circulation for our region.
700-mb plots of heights, relative humidity, and omega indicate formidable
moisture from the south carried in from the low. This moisture will
begin to dissipate over Mid-Missouri, and the region will be mostly dry by 21z Friday as the system
leaves the area and some lingering moisture remains. Humidity will still remain high for today, but will decrease as the day goes on and into the overnight hours.
The 850-mb plots of heights, winds, and temperatures shows weaker easterly winds over MO for Thursday into tonight, Winds will shift to the west starting 18Z Friday, which will draw in the warmer temperatures from the Southwestern United States. Temperatures will warm considerably starting Friday, continuing to warm each successive day through the end of the weekend.
GFS soundings indicated decreasing saturation levels as the atmosphere becomes increasingly stabilized. As cloud cover decreases over the next 24 hours, moisture will deplete soon after and keep us significantly warmer and drier for the next 72 hours.
Future forecasters should pay attention to the incoming upper-level ridge toward our west and its accompanying jet streak.
- McDonald, Aldrich