Saturday Night: Clear and breezy. Low: 68
Sunday: Increasing clouds after noon. High: 85
Discussion: The Homecoming weekend forecast looks to be an unseasonably warm one. Thanks to high pressure and southerly flow through the majority of the weekend high temperatures for Friday and Saturday will reside in the 80's with the high on Saturday pushing near 90 by kickoff, fairly warm for the second weekend of October. Mizzou fans will have to worry more about staying hydrated rather than any rain chances for the festivities this weekend. Other than passing clouds the forecast looks to be a dry one with no rainfall accumulations through Sunday afternoon expected at this time.
Forecasters: Splater, Bongard
Date Issued: 10/8/21 10:00 AM CST
The model used for this forecast was the 06Z NAM. It handled starting conditions well and had low variability compared to previous runs according to SREF plumes. Model soundings were also utilized to forecast temperature and any rain chances (or lack thereof) on Sunday.
At 250-mb the low pressure that has dwelled over Missouri has pushed northeast near the Great Lakes. By 21Z on Friday, a jet streak will follow and move through the area. A ridge will begin building across the region by 12Z on Saturday and holds through the rest of the forecasting period.
The 500-mb map shows vorticity leaving the region as the low continues its path east. The NAM is picking up on a lobe of vorticity passing over Mid-Missouri on Friday evening which will fall apart by Saturday. As the ridge enters, vorticity will remain subpar through Sunday before a front creeps near the area at the end of the forecast period.
At the 700-mb level, moisture will slowly exit the region following the low, though relative humidity increases slightly at 21Z Friday. Cloud cover will build before moving out again by 12Z Saturday. Conditions remain dry under the ridge before the approaching front increases moisture into Sunday.
At 850-mb, winds are beginning to funnel out of the southwest, bringing a return of unseasonably warm temperatures for the forecast period. Warm air advection, coupled with a low-level jet forming early Saturday, will send highs nearly 15 degrees above average.
The surface will see warm air advection beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through the forecast period. Winds increase as the jet picks up Saturday though moisture will be limited as winds continue out of the southwest through the end of the period on Sunday.
Future forecasters may investigate further the encroaching low pressure system that looks to impact the region Sunday night into Monday. This system will likely change the dynamics behind the unseasonably warm weekend we are set to experience.