Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Friday: Cloudy with isolated showers. High: 59
Friday Night: Clouds exiting. Low: 34
Saturday: Clear sky. High: 65
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 35
Sunday: Clear and warmer. High: 70
Discussion:
Friday will start off cloudy with scattered rain as a cold front exits to the southeast. Trace amounts are expected for central Missouri today with showers ending near sundown. Clouds move out overnight, allowing temperatures to dip to the lowest point so far this season in the 30s! Saturday will be a seasonal gameday with clear skies and a high of 65. A ridge moving in over the weekend will keep clear skies around and usher in another warming trend by Sunday.
- Splater
====================================================================
Forecasters: Schneringer, Splater, Bongard
Date Issued: 10/15/21 10:00 AM CST
Technical discussion:
The NAM was the model primarily used in this forecast. This decision was made based on its better handling of current conditions than the GFS. Both models displayed relative consensus on current conditions aloft, however the NAM handled the morning low temperatures better than the GFS.
At the 250-mb level, Missouri is positioned directly under a moderate jet stream. This jet is associated with a large trough currently situated over the High Plains extending southward through parts of northern Texas. This trough will move over Missouri and the forecast area through the next 24 hours, and the axis will exit the region by 20Z on Saturday. Divergence associated with the jet stream will pass over the region Friday afternoon between 15Z and 22Z. As the weekend progresses, the trough will move out of the forecast region, and the upper levels will be dominated by a large ridge pattern that will become situated around 09Z Sunday morning.
The 500-mb level sees large vorticity and relative humidity values between 20Z and 00Z Friday afternoon move over Boone County. These features, along with the divergence aloft at the 250-mb seem to indicate potential showers during this time period. After this period, moisture clears out at this level as the ridge begins to move in for the rest of the forecast period.
At the 700-mb level, moderate-to-large amounts of moisture are present Friday afternoon beginning at 20Z, before drying out by 01Z Saturday. Negative Omega values at that time indicates any rain that occurs Friday afternoon will occur between the 21Z-00Z time frame. The ridge moving into the region means low values of RH will persist through the rest of the weekend, bringing clear skies with it.
At the 850-mb level, moisture again peaks around 22Z Friday before drying out later that night. Somewhat patchy amounts of RH as opposed to uniform blanketing lends itself to spotty showers as opposed to consistent rain Friday afternoon. Ridging this weekend lends itself to CAA at this level Saturday.
-Schneringer
No comments:
Post a Comment