Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday Night: Cloudy with isolated showers. Low: 58
Friday: Cloudy with off and on showers, temperatures falling throughout the day. High: 58
Friday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 41
Saturday: Clear sky. High: 62
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 40
Discussion:
Thursday evening, temperatures decrease with increasing clouds. Thursday night will see isolated light showers. Clouds and light rain showers will continue into Friday and throughout the day. A cold front will move through bringing colder Fall-like temperatures with a high of 58 in the morning. Temperatures will continue to fall during the day. Clouds will clear near midnight Friday. Saturday will be a sunny day, perfect for a Fall Football Game Day with temperatures reaching a high of 62. The sky will remain clear into the evening.
- Heienickle
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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr
Date Issued: 10/14/21 5:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
For this forecast the NAM was the primary model used. This was chosen by looking at the Model Output Statistics for both the NAM and GFS, as well as comparing the models to the surface conditions at 21Z. Although both models had a close consensus on the current conditions, the NAM performed slightly better than the GFS. SREF & GEFS plumes were used in conjunction with the NAM to assess temperatures. Soundings from the NAM were used for cloud cover/precipitation chances.
At the 250-mb level, a large trough was located over the central US with Missouri at the right edge. This trough is slow to traverse across Missouri, only moving east of the area by 00Z Sunday. Between 15Z and 21Z on Friday, small areas of divergence moves overhead. While the trough is overhead, a jet streak persists.
At the 500-mb level, vorticity associated with the trough stays to the west until around 12Z on Friday. The strongest circulations move through central Missouri between 12Z on Friday and 15Z on Saturday. Vorticity clears the area by 21Z Saturday as the aforementioned trough moves to the east. Future forecasters should monitor the ridge which follows the exiting trough.
At the 700-mb level, higher amounts of Relative Humidity persist over Mid-Missouri until 02Z on Saturday. However, the higher amounts are not uniform, but instead patchy as the trough continues to move overhead. Soundings from the NAM support the areas of patchy clouds/rainfall. With CAPE values near 0, thunderstorms do not appear likely.
At the 850-mb level, a stationary front evident by the wind change over Missouri slowly moves out of the area as the trough enters the region. A cold front then moves through on Friday, shifting winds to the northwest, which will remain consistent through the night on Friday. Temperatures will fall throughout the day Friday, meaning our high temperature will likely be hit sometime in the morning. Temperatures will remain cooler than average into Saturday.
Conditions seen at the upper levels are reflected at the surface. Winds may increase to 15kt with the passage of the front.
-Meyer
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