Friday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 56-60
Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 80-84
Saturday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 60-64
Sunday - Overcast with rain. High: 70-74
Monday - Overcast with evening thunderstorms. High: 72-76
Discussion:
The beginning of the weekend will start off nice with little cloud cover due to the lack of moisture, clouds
will begin to develop that night leading into Sunday. This is due to a shift in winds causing moisture to
increase as well as the passage of a cold front, dropping high temps from the mid 80’s to low 70’s. .
Things begin to change on Sunday, when late day rain should be expected, bringing in around 0.25
inches. Clouds will remain through Sunday night into Monday. Thunderstorms are expected Monday
evening, and should be monitored closely for severity changes.
will begin to develop that night leading into Sunday. This is due to a shift in winds causing moisture to
increase as well as the passage of a cold front, dropping high temps from the mid 80’s to low 70’s. .
Things begin to change on Sunday, when late day rain should be expected, bringing in around 0.25
inches. Clouds will remain through Sunday night into Monday. Thunderstorms are expected Monday
evening, and should be monitored closely for severity changes.
===========================================================================================
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Savoy, Heaven
Issued: 5:00pm: May 1, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
WPC model diagnostics suggests a non UKMET model blend, with above average
confidence so we decided to go with the 12Z GFS. SREF plumes were also referenced
for temperature and precipitation averages.
confidence so we decided to go with the 12Z GFS. SREF plumes were also referenced
for temperature and precipitation averages.
Starting off at 250 hPa, we see winds from the northwest for a majority of the forecast
period with small shifts from west back to northwest. We will be under the influence
of the jet max as well, with the jet core staying North of us until the next forecast period.
Our flow remains zonal until Monday, when a ridge starts to develop as it moves through
the state of Missouri.
period with small shifts from west back to northwest. We will be under the influence
of the jet max as well, with the jet core staying North of us until the next forecast period.
Our flow remains zonal until Monday, when a ridge starts to develop as it moves through
the state of Missouri.
As we move down to the 500 hPa level, we again noted mostly zonal flow with a short
wave on Saturday that quickly disappears back into the zonal flow. On Monday we become
under the influence of a ridge, which was seen at the 250 hPa level. A deep low was noted
off the coast of Northern California which should be watched, as it will most likely be
influencing our weather later in the week. On Sunday at 12Z we noted high vertical velocity
values, vorticity and saturation, which will be cause for rain. Another chance for rain will
happen Monday evening when we have Thunderstorm possibilities, which will be discussed
further down.
wave on Saturday that quickly disappears back into the zonal flow. On Monday we become
under the influence of a ridge, which was seen at the 250 hPa level. A deep low was noted
off the coast of Northern California which should be watched, as it will most likely be
influencing our weather later in the week. On Sunday at 12Z we noted high vertical velocity
values, vorticity and saturation, which will be cause for rain. Another chance for rain will
happen Monday evening when we have Thunderstorm possibilities, which will be discussed
further down.
For the 700 hPa Vertical velocity and RH we also take note of Sunday at 12Z where there
were both regions of high vertical velocity and high RH values. It should be noted that this
existed the region relatively quickly. Consulting the Skew-T at this time we note that there
is a saturated layer from the 850- 700 hPa level and lift present. The SREF model runs
support this precipitation in the amount of approximately 0.25 inches.
were both regions of high vertical velocity and high RH values. It should be noted that this
existed the region relatively quickly. Consulting the Skew-T at this time we note that there
is a saturated layer from the 850- 700 hPa level and lift present. The SREF model runs
support this precipitation in the amount of approximately 0.25 inches.
It should be noted that on Monday, from Skew-T analysis, there is possible thunderstorm
activity from Monday evening into Tuesday (Tuesday 0Z). It was noted that the atmosphere
is saturated from the surface to 1km above and there was lift as well. There were significant
MU CAPE whose numeric value was given by 1492 J/kg. We also observed a -5 LI indicative
of large instability. The hodograph was curved and the winds were veering winds whose value
were not equal in the 0 -3 km level. This coupled with significant SRH values of 409 m^2/s^2
(for 1km layer above the ground) and 511m^2/s^2 (for 3km above the ground), indicates the
possibility for severe weather. Future forecasters should monitor this low pressure system
moving into our region. The SREF places us in the vicinity of 0.5 inches of precipitation.
activity from Monday evening into Tuesday (Tuesday 0Z). It was noted that the atmosphere
is saturated from the surface to 1km above and there was lift as well. There were significant
MU CAPE whose numeric value was given by 1492 J/kg. We also observed a -5 LI indicative
of large instability. The hodograph was curved and the winds were veering winds whose value
were not equal in the 0 -3 km level. This coupled with significant SRH values of 409 m^2/s^2
(for 1km layer above the ground) and 511m^2/s^2 (for 3km above the ground), indicates the
possibility for severe weather. Future forecasters should monitor this low pressure system
moving into our region. The SREF places us in the vicinity of 0.5 inches of precipitation.
From the 850 hPa temperature and wind speed. To account for our warmer weather we
are experiencing now, we see winds are blowing warm air from the SW into our region.
We see a shift in winds from SW to NW as a cold front is coming in on Saturday at 12Z.
On Sunday at 12Z, we see a deformation zone in which winds are being stretched in different
directions in Central Missouri. At this time there is colder air in Northern Missouri and warmer
air in Southern Missouri. Hence indicating there is a thermal gradient associated with this
deformation zone.
are experiencing now, we see winds are blowing warm air from the SW into our region.
We see a shift in winds from SW to NW as a cold front is coming in on Saturday at 12Z.
On Sunday at 12Z, we see a deformation zone in which winds are being stretched in different
directions in Central Missouri. At this time there is colder air in Northern Missouri and warmer
air in Southern Missouri. Hence indicating there is a thermal gradient associated with this
deformation zone.
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