Friday, April 9, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


 


Friday -
Increasing cloud cover throughout the day. High: 70-74
 

 

Friday Night -
Threat of overnight thunderstorms. Low: 46-50


 

Saturday -
Widespread rain. High: 52-56
 
 
 

Saturday Night -
Clearing skies. Low: 42-46
 

 

Sunday -
Mostly sunny. High: 66-70




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Discussion: 
 
Today's calm weather and warm temperatures unfortunately will not last long as a cold front will pass through Mid-Missouri later this evening. Expect a drop in temperatures, increasing cloud cover, and widespread precipitation to occur. Furthermore, levels of atmospheric instability will be in place leaving us at risk for overnight thunderstorms going into Saturday morning. For Saturday, rainy conditions will continue for the majority of the day. Cloud cover will begin clearing that evening with warm and dry conditions returning Sunday. All in all, total rainfall accumulation should top out at just over 1 inch.
 

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Forecaster: Bongard, Hefner, Ozdas
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 09 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):
 

For this forecasting period, the GFS20 was used for assembling today's forecasts due to it's accurate placement of the low pressure system, as well as, better handling of initial temperature conditions. Additionally, both GEFS and SREF plumes were examined for total QPF estimates. The main focus for this shift is the cold frontal passage occurring Friday evening and the precipitation associated with it.

At the 250-mb level a negatively tilted trough is being replaced over Missouri by another LPS coming from the northwest of Missouri. The divergence increases its intensity leading to vertical motion takes place over the region.

The circulation will reach much higher values over this region Saturday morning. The circulation associated with the LPS will move fast and pushes through mid-Missouri overnight and tomorrow before evacuating to the northeast. Worth mentioning here is the deep layer of moisture found on GFS soundings as high as the 500-mb level lending to a moisture rich environment this weekend.

At the 700-mb level moisture content is going to increase over Missouri over the course of the day Friday. The source of this moisture is associated with the incoming system from the northwest. This will cause cloud cover. GFS soundings suggest that the clouds and rain will clear out on Sunday morning.

The 850-mb level has winds currently blowing out of the south-southwest introducing increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. These warmer temperature and additional levels of moisture can aid in the development of thunderstorms for Friday evening going into Saturday morning. On 18Z Saturday wind direction will transition to the northwest supporting the notion of cold frontal passage.

The next forecasting shift should continue to monitor the low pressure system moving through our region on Saturday.

 

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