Warm and spring-like days are expecting on Friday and Saturday with the temperatures reaching the mid-70s. On Sunday rain is expect because of a low pressure system pushing through southern Missouri Sunday morning.
For this forecast period the GFS model was used simply because we had difficulty producing NAM and RAP model charts in the lab.
At the 250-mb level a low pressure system will be coming out of the Panhandles and north Texas, influencing this regions forecast period by Sunday 06Z.Friday and Saturday our region will be under the influence of an upper level ridge. The low pressure system is positively tilted on Sunday, starting Sunday 09Z, this system will become a negatively tilted and reach southern Missouri by Sunday morning.
At the 500-mb, the LPS will cause some circulations to impact southern and mid-Missouri between 06Z and 18Z Sunday. The vorticity values will decrease by late Sunday night.
At the 700-mb level, the RH over Missouri will be increasing starting from the north of Missouri Friday morning, and because this moisture will be heading to our region from the north, there will be slight temperature decreases as thickness contours suggest over Missouri.
At the 850-mb level, the wind is north northwesterly, becoming northerly due to the high pressure system passage to the south of Missouri it will shift to southwesterly. Missouri will be in the downglide of a trough.
At the surface, baroclinic environment will be developing, although the thickness gradient will tighten up. It will not the enhance the low level wind speeds because of the solenoid development. Late Sunday night Missouri will experience WAA. Southwesterly wind will be becoming southerly.
The GFS model soundings suggest the atmosphere is fairly stable on Friday and Saturday. The atmosphere will begin to saturate starting from Sunday at 06Z with not much UVM. On Sunday at 18Z, the GFS sounding is suggesting that weak convection can be supported. The precipitation will be affecting mid-Missouri on Sunday with around 0.30 inches accumulation.