Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday - Sunny, Increasing clouds. Breezy. High: 82-86

Tuesday night- Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low: 62-66

Wednesday- Mostly cloudy. Rain likely with a possible thunderstorm. High: 68-72

Wednesday night- Mostly cloudy. Rain possible throughout the night. Low: 58-62

Thursday- Mostly cloudy, rain tapering off in morning hrs. High: 66-70

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Discussion: 

Warm temperatures are going to dominate the area for today. If you have time today, get outside and enjoy them today as tomorrow will be a different story. Today winds are going to be breezy to start out the day, but not as breezy as yesterday. Sun will stick around for the most part of today, clouds will be expected to build as a low pressure system starts to push its way towards Missouri in the evening hours. Tonight there is a possibility for showers and thunderstorms. These storms could be strong at times. The possibility for them to be severe remains low, the main concern if these storms were to become severe is hail, but again this threat remains very low. Headed into Wednesday widespread rain will be likely. Flooding will be a major concern. Remember if you see a road flooded turn around, don't drown. This widespread rain can be heavy at times and will not exit the area until Thursday morning. Total precipitation by Thursday morning could be between 1-2 inches. This low pressure system will move through the area by Thursday morning, associated with a cold front, so temperatures won't be quite as warm as today. Once all the rain moves out we could have the possibility to see some sun by the evening hours on Thursday.

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Forecaster: Pauley

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 27 April 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was created by using a general model blend of the 06z GFS, 06z NAM, and the 09z RAP. 24 hours ago the NAM was showing a dry air bias. When looking and comparing the GFS to the RAP these two models are producing better timing as for when the bulk of the moisture is going to start moving into central Missouri. As the 12z NAM is processing, this time is being used to help forecast temperatures. This time of the NAM is grasping temperatures better than the other models.

Today, Missouri is still sitting under a pronounced ridging pattern. A deep trough is sitting over Nevada and starting to push eastward which will be affecting central Missouri’s weather in the coming days. Moisture and lift will slightly increase throughout the day giving the ingredients for clouds to start building. Winds will be coming out of the south, in the morning to the afternoon hours. Winds close to the surface are between 30-35kts creating breezy conditions for the first start of the day. When looking at 15z GFS sounding central Missouri is going to be experiencing veering winds which will create warm air advection and help spike temperatures up into the lower to middle 80’s. Headed into tonight as the trough continues to push eastward a low pressure system with a cold front will be associated with this trough. This low pressure system is going to give the possibility for showers and thunderstorms starting around 00z Wednesday. Humidity and lift will start to build around the 00z Wednesday hour. MUCAPE values around 00z are averaging around 2000-2500 J/Kg. This could make some of these storms strong to possibly severe. Some of these storms could possibly produce severe hail due to elevated lapse rates in the mid-level. The possibility for any of these storms to become severe remains low. Showers and possible thunderstorms will start to make its way through central Missouri by 04z Wednesday. 

Wednesday, The first round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move out of the area between 09z-12z Wednesday. Behind the first round of the showers and thunderstorms is another round of rain. This second round of rain will be more widespread, this rain will start to move in by 13z-15z and will stick around all the way into Thursday morning. As for severity, it is unlikely for the second round to produce anything severe. These storms could still be strong at times as MUCAPE values are 1000 J/Kg. Heavy rain can be expected, this is the main concern out of the forecast. The risk for flooding will be a concerning factor as the ground will already be saturated, the rain will stick around for 24 hours and can be heavy at times. By the time this rain event is expected to exit in the morning hours on Thursday, central Missouri could see between 1-2 inches total. Thursday morning is when the cold front passes through Missouri. By Thursday afternoon the bulk of the rain will be pushing southeast, giving the possibility to see some peaks of the Sun.