Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday- Mostly Sunny. High: 60-64

 

Monday Night- Partly Cloudy. Low: 40-44.

 

 

Tuesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 60-64.

 

Tuesday Night -  Mostly Cloudy. Low: 38-42. 

 

 

Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 56-60.

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Discussion: 

 

 

This week will start off slightly cooler and drier compared to the past few days. A weak and dry cold front will proceed to move southeast through mid-Missouri bringing in colder temperatures and cloud cover. After the passage of the cold front today, winds will shift out of the northwest which will continue to be a cooling factor as we head into Monday night. Tuesday will be slightly warmer than Monday as wind shift to the west northwest along with minimal cloud cover, bringing slightly warmer temperatures. Tuesday night winds will then again shift to the northwest lowering temperatures into the low 40's. Wednesday will be slightly cooler than Tuesday as the winds remain out of the northwest. 

 

 

 

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Forecaster: Pauley, Henderson, Gotsch

Issued: 10:00 AM CST 12 April 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

  
This forecast was generated with the use of the the 06z NAM model run. The GFS has been under performing the last week and continues this trend with its poor handling of moisture and temperature trends. The main focus of this forecast will be the temperatures and shifting winds back and forth from the north and west.

     

    Currently the Midwest sits in a zonal upper level flow. There is a low pressure system currently residing over the great lake region that stays well off to our northeast. Behind this cut-off upper level low pressure system, an upper-level ridge is slowly building overhead which will lead to drier conditions persisting throughout much of today through Tuesday. Low-level winds are currently out of the northwest leading to cooler temperatures than we saw yesterday. 

    

     As we head into Monday night, winds begin to shift more from the north leading to a cool down of nearly 20 degrees. We remain under the influence of the upper-level ridge and winds at the lower levels stay out of the north. Tuesday morning winds begin to shift back to a more westerly flow leading to temperatures peaking near 60 degrees once again for Tuesday's high. Just north of Minnesota in south central Canada another upper-level  trough begins to develop but tracks to the east staying well north of Missouri. Behind this pressure system, a upper-level ridge begins to build and makes its way from the western United States over the Midwest into Tuesday night. This will keep our dry and cool conditions with us as we head into Wednesday morning. 

  

     Late Wednesday morning a slight upper-level trough develops and moves east across the Midwest. Parts of southeastern Missouri and northern Arkansas can expect to see some rain throughout much of the late morning into the early afternoon, but in Central Missouri we will remain dry thanks to a lack of moisture transport with our low-level winds persisting out of the northwest. This will allow for mostly sunny skies and for our highs to remain near the 60 degree mark with similar daytime influences we will see on Monday and Tuesday. 

   

     The next forecasters main focus should be on the deepening upper-level trough that will be pushing in from out over the Northwestern United States. If low-level moisture feeds into Missouri, we could see more showers heading into late this week.