Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday - Overcast with rain beginning around 6pm. High: 54 - 58.

 

Friday Night - Rain throughout the night. Low: 42 - 46.

Saturday - Showers into the evening. High: 52-56. 

 

 

Saturday Night - Most cloudy and cool conditions. Low: 40-44

Sunday- Partly cloudy with clearing clouds throughout the day. High: 56-60.

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Discussion: 

Outdoor plans may have to be put on hold this weekend as the forecast calls for persistence rain showers from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Once all is said and done, rainfall accumulation is expected to total around 0.5 inches. High temperatures will remain in the mid 50's for this forecasting period. Sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures will return Sunday as the low pressure system pushes northeast and out of mid-Missouri.

 

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Forecaster: Bongard, Hefner, Ozdas

Issued: 10:00 AM CDT 16 April 2021

 

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

    The NAM40 was selected for this forecasting shift because of it's accurate placement of the approaching low pressure system. Additionally, both SREF and GEFS plumes were reviewed for analyzing total QPF .

    At the 250-mb plot, the slight ridge that has developed over northern Missouri will begin to flatten out by 12Z Friday leaving behind zonal flow for the majority of the forecast period. A positively tilted trough will begin to develop to the west which will impact our weather later on throughout the week.

    At 500-mb, the upper-level ridge is over Missouri, the LPS is approaching from the west. This system will be weakening over the weekend, though the circulation will be still supporting the system not to dissipate entirely. The NAM40 suggests that there will be another LPS developing over North Dakota by Sunday 12Z and will make the atmosphere cloudy over mid-Missouri.

    At 700-mb level, the low-level moisture content will be transported from the Gulf of Mexico Friday morning wetting the atmosphere. Isotropic analysis highlights high values of relative humidity along with the forcing necessary to bring the region precipitation over the weekend.

    The 850-mb chart suggests that Missouri will be under the influence of polar air masses during the weekend contributing to temperature decrease. Winds will transition from southerly direction on Friday to the northwest on Saturday morning after frontal passage.

    At the surface, a weak baroclinic atmosphere will be seen in this forecast period. Starting from Friday 21Z, stratiform precipitation is likely through Sunday morning. Sunday morning NAM soundings suggests fog by 17Z. 

 

    The next forecast period should take note of positively tilted trough and the effects it can have on our future weather.