Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Tuesday Night -
 Mostly cloudy. Low: 40-44



Wednesday -
Mostly sunny. High: 58-62



Wednesday Night -
 Mostly clear. Breezy. Low: 34-38



Thursday - 
Mostly sunny. High: 54-58



Friday -
Cloudy. Rain possible in the early evening. High: 54-58



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Discussion: 

We will be seeing fairly consistent temperatures throughout the rest of this week, so make sure to get outside and enjoy the nice weather these next couple of days. Daytime temperatures will remain in the mid-50s to lower 60s, very comfortable and appropriate conditions for this time of year. Wednesday night is expected to be breezy and chilly with temperatures in the mid 30s, so hold onto your hats and bring a warm jacket with you if you plan on heading out in the evening. Skies are expected to remain mostly sunny until Friday, when chances for rain will return in the early evening and cloudy skies will persist throughout the day.

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Forecaster: Orr, Vochatzer
Issued: 05:00 PM CST 13 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):


This forecast was assembled using the 06Z run of the GFS, GEFS and SREF plumes, and GFS soundings. The GFS was chosen due to its accuracy in initial conditions of winds and temperatures. The persistence forecasting method was also used in this forecast due to zonal flow and stable atmospheric conditions being the main driving force behind this week's weather. 

 

Plots of 250-mb heights, winds, and divergence depict Missouri's weather being governed by zonal flow. Mid-Missouri is under a jet steak from around 18Z on Tuesday to 06Z Thursday. Small amounts of divergence move in and out of the forecast area during this time as well, helping facilitate some of the cloudiness seen over the next several days. Starting on 12Z Friday, an upper level ridge moves over Missouri, bringing with it larger amounts of divergence. 

 

At the 500-mb level, plots of heights and vorticity continue to support the trend of calm weather. Small circulations move through Missouri, adding more support for cloud formation throughout the week. The overall zonal pattern prevents Mid-Missouri from seeing any major circulations until about 15Z Friday. At this time, the ridge pattern brings higher amounts of vorticity into Missouri. 


At 700-mb, relative humidity and height plots show variable amounts of moisture over Missouri throughout the forecast period. On Wednesday and Thursday, cloud cover will be variable due to the atmosphere's variable saturation. A dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere prevents any precip from falling, but partly cloudy skies remain. A more widespread area of moisture enters the region Friday around 12Z. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day, and by late evening rain chances will being to increase as well.


850-mb plots of heights, winds, and temperatures show the reason as to why Missouri will be seeing cooler, but more seasonable temperatures. Until Friday, winds will remain in a north northwesterly direction, bringing cooler air into the region. However, by 09Z Friday, winds begin shifting to a southerly direction due to the influence of an incoming weak low pressure system. Future forecasters should watch for this shift and its potential impact on temperatures and rainfall.


At the surface level, plots of MSLP, thickness, and winds provide more support for Missouri's seasonable temperatures. Winds remain out of a northwesterly direction. Gusts of up to 20 kts may be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.

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