Monday, April 12, 2021

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Monday Night- 
Mostly cloudy. Low: 40-44

 


Tuesday -
 Partly sunny. High: 60-64

 


Tuesday Night -
  Partly cloudy. Low: 38-42

 


Wednesday - 
Partly sunny. High: 56-60




Thursday -
Partly sunny. High: 58-62



================================================================== 
 Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Discussion: 
Cooler air has been ushered into Mid-MO from a dry cold front that moved across the area last night. Winds are out of the northwest now, allowing for temperatures to be slightly below the mid-April average of 65 degrees through the week. Winds could be a tad breezy at times and create a slight wind chill in the morning hours. A few rain systems will pass to the south over the next few days, but Columbia should remain dry through the forecast period. All this should bring is varying cloud cover, but some sunshine is still expected. 

==================================================================

 
Forecaster: Clemons
Issued: 4:00 PM CST 12 April 2021
 
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):
This forecast was created using a general model blend of the 12Z NAM and GFS, and the SREF and GEFS ensembles. The main focus for this forecast period is the below-average temperatures and a few passing shortwaves that will likely not create rain chances for central Missouri.

A weak and dry cold front moved over Missouri from the northwest last night, allowing for weak CAA to occur over Columbia. Winds shifted out of the northwest and provided high temperatures 7-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. The aforementioned cold front is currently becoming quasi-stationary as it stretches from the Texarkana area to eastern Tennessee. Southerly winds ahead of the front are funneling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and models suggest moisture could move as far north as southern Missouri. Forecast relative humidity values near the surface over COU want to stay around 60% when this system moves northward around 09Z tomorrow morning, so it is very unlikely for Columbia to see any rainfall overnight. The area will likely only see increased cloud cover tomorrow morning before dry, northwesterly winds push the moisture further south through Tuesday.

Central Missouri currently sits in a zonal pattern at 250-mb, but a southern-stream shortwave is expected to form and impact parts of the Mississippi Valley again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the aforementioned cold front will likely be even further southward at this time, Columbia should only see passing clouds through Tuesday night and no traces of rainfall. The rest of the forecast period looks to stay dry, as well. North-northwesterly winds will dominate with the help from an upper-level low pressure system over the Great Lakes and a surface high pressure system over the Great Plains through Wednesday. These winds could be a tad breezy at times and create a slight wind chill in the morning hours, as a few isobars want to stick around central Missouri this week and provide an increased pressure gradient over a small area.

While this forecast period will remain dry, future forecasters should monitor Friday's rain chances. Increased upper-level divergence ahead of a trough wants to approach Mid-Missouri from the Great Plains. Moisture supply may be limited, however, if those northwesterly winds continue to dominate.

No comments:

Post a Comment