Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46
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Discussion:
We'll continue to see fall-like weather as the first full week of astronomical fall comes to a close! High temperatures in the upper 60's to low 70's and few to no clouds will persist into the start of the weekend.
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Forecasters: Shaw, Russell, Travis
Date Issued: 09/28/2022 9:00 AM CDT
Expecting a cookie-cutter forecast through the end of this week with cool, seasonal temperatures and little in the way of cloud cover. This is largely due to the presence of an upper-level ridge which will stick around for several days. The NAM and GFS were both taken into consideration for this forecast; however, some caution was exercised with the NAM, as it was somewhat aggressive with moisture and vorticity advection.
A trough present in the upper levels made its way out of MO this morning as a persistent meridional pattern takes its place. High pressure over the central US is sandwiched between a stagnant closed low over MT and the presence of Hurricane Ian in the SE. As would be expected, there's not much in the way of large-scale circulation in the ridge between these two features.
The mid levels remain quite dry through the end of the period. The closed upper-level low to our NW becomes less evident, especially at 850mb, though moisture associated with the low is abundant in that region. This may be something worth keeping an eye on in future forecast shifts, but will stay well NW of MO through at least Friday night. An area of high pressure over IA will slowly sink SE Thursday and Friday, which will help shift low-level winds from the NE to generally E/ESE. As a result, high temperatures will stay fairly steady, though trending slightly upward by the end of the period.
-Shaw
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