Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46
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Discussion:
Through the end of the week we will see a continuance of clear and sunny skies. Due to the high pressure system hanging over Missouri our fall temperatures will continue with a slight increase as we end the week in the mid 70s and nighttime temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.
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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith
Date Issued: 09/28/2022 5:00 PM CDT
Using a mixture of the GFS and NAM a high pressure system can be seen dominating the CWA for the forecasting period. This will keep the region dry and bring on slightly warmer temperatures as we move through the week.
As an upper-level trough and the jet stream exit the region, a short-wave trough can be seen over southern Missouri Wednesday evening at 21Z. As this trough moves eastward, it is followed by a HPS that sticks around over the Great Plains for the rest of the week. This HPS sandwiched between a significant LPS in the PNW and Hurricane Ian in the SE prevents moisture and convection from infiltrating our area.
The low levels show the same story with the HPS preventing significant moisture transport and temperature advection. Surface winds fluctuate between east and south bringing slightly warmer temperatures with Friday reaching the mid 70s. Overnight clear skies allow for radiative cooling with nighttime lows hanging in the mid to upper 40s. The GFS soundings support our mild weather showing dry profiles for the duration of the forecasting period.
Future forecasters should be weary of the low pressure systems from the PNW and Hurricane Ian encroaching on the area.
-Cochran, Jones, Smith
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