Monday, September 26, 2022

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

             




Monday Night:
Clear. Low: 49
 
 

Tuesday:
Clear. High: 76
 


Tuesday Night:
Clear. Low: 41



Wednesday:
Clear. High: 68



Wednesday Night:
Clear. Low: 43

 

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Discussion:

Things are starting off much cooler this week. Winds will prevail from the north for the beginning of the week, which will aid these cooler temperatures. High pressure and low moisture content will keeps the sky clear, which will lead to very cold nighttime lows and very nice daytime highs.
 
 
-Cook

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Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 09/26/2022 5:00 PM


Technical Discussion:
 
A fall-like pattern will continue across mid-Missouri due to a longwave ridge over the Midwest. We chose the to base our forecast off the GFS due to its accuracy of the current conditions. The NAM had a clear warm bias of the current conditions. The NBM was also used as a reference for temperature forecasts.

At the upper-levels of the atmosphere, the GFS shows a winds out of the NW as a longwave trough moves through the Eastern CONUS. The GFS showed low wind divergence at the 250-mb level.

At 500-mb, GFS picked up weak to non-existent areas of circulation as the ridge moved into mid-Missouri. Winds continued out of the north as a high pressure system floated over Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle.

Moisture at the mid-levels is low for most of the forecast period as high pressure moves in from the southwest. This will bring a clear sky for the forecast period making mornings cooler due to radiational cooling.

The trend of a dry atmosphere continues the closer we get to the surface. Dewpoints at the surface will stay low for the forecast period. Winds will stay out of the north and switch to the east as the week progresses. The NAM forecast cooler mornings than the GFS but forecast daytime temperatures over six degrees warmer than the GFS. The GFS and NBM ran similar. Future shifts should continue monitoring these temperature differences. 
 
-Herion
 

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