Tuesday, September 6, 2022

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field






Tuesday Night:
Clouds returning overnight. Low: 65 




Wednesday:
Mostly sunny. High: 85

 


Wednesday Night:
Clear. Low: 61
 




Thursday:
Sunny. High: 87
 



Thursday Night:
Clear. Low: 60

 

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Discussion:

Sunny September days are ahead! Temperatures will remain comfortably warm for the mid-week before beginning to tick upward into the weekend. A calm northeast breeze will keep moisture at bay, making these next few days all the more pleasant!

- Macko

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Forecasters: Macko, Simmons, Meier

Date Issued: 09/06/2022 5:00PM CDT


Technical Discussion:
 

For this forecast period, the 12Z GFS20 was selected. The NAM40 struggled to accurately resolve temperatures across the Midwest with a strong warm bias. In terms of temperatures, the GFS20 was much closer to verification. Additionally, the GFS excelled in modelling the current northeasterly flow across Central Missouri.

With high pressure overhead, there is little of concern over the next several days. Other than low confidence in Thursday afternoon's high temperature due to the lack of cloud cover from the previous night and the timing of the morning wind shift, high pressure prevents any notable activity until it it is pushed eastward by an incoming frontal system. Future forecasters should note that this cold frontal passage is anticipated over the weekend and should attempt to narrow down the time frame during which the passage is set occur.

If the environment in the Columbia area over the next several days needed to be described in a single word, that word would be 'unremarkable'. The upper-level jet stream continues to hug the U.S./Canada border in the coming days before slowly retreating southward midday on Thursday. As the jet continues its journey south, upper-level troughing grows evident early on Friday. This trough will continue to amplify as it creeps closer to Missouri. 

The mid-levels of the atmosphere are even more unimpressive through Thursday evening. Vorticity and vertical velocity are nothing more than lackluster ahead of the cold front's arrival. Similarly, 700-mb moisture is essential absent. While more moisture seems to be available at the 850-mb level over the next few days, the lack of forcing and vertical ascent will lead to occasional cloud cover at best. 

Surface winds will maintain their northeasterly origins up until Thursday morning when they begin to turn out of the south for much of Missouri. Winds will then remain predominantly out of the south up until the frontal passage over the weekend. The southerly flow will allow temperatures to increase as we approach the weekend.

 

- Macko

 

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