Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 43
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 68
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 43
Thursday: Sunny. High: 71
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Discussion:
Having a hard time getting up for those 8am classes? No problem! These crisp, fall morning temperatures are here to jolt you awake. You'll definitely want to keep a light jacket with you as you head to class. All-day sunshine is expected to prevail through the end of the week, so the afternoons should be comfortable enough for you to throw that light jacket in your backpack. =================================================================
Forecasters: Meier, Simmons, Macko
Date Issued: 09/27/2022 5:00 PM CDT
This forecast was developed using a blend of the 12Z run of the GFS20 and the 18Z run of the NAM12 as well as a little bit of input from the NBM for this week's temperatures. Overall, the GFS has been handling temperatures relatively well when compared to the NAM12. Outside of temperatures, the models seem to be agreeing on other conditions such as wind speed/direction and the placement of high and low pressure systems across the CONUS. The main focus of the forecasters for this forecast period was the ridge off to the west and how that will impact the weather in the coming days.
On Tuesday afternoon, the upper-level jetstream could be found extending meridionally from the Great Lakes region down into the Upper Midwest before reaching back up the eastern seaboard. This is all in association with a positively-tilted upper-level trough enforced by a low-pressure system in southern Quebec. As this low-pressure system continues its eastward trek, zonal flow over Missouri will return. Here, Missouri will remain outside of upper-level jetstream influence for the entirety of the forecast period. Come late Thursday evening, an upper-level low-pressure system is expected to station itself briefly over Idaho and Montana. Future forecast shifts should direct their attention to this low-pressure system and how it may impact the weather heading into the weekend.
Vorticity is colocated with the upper-level jetstream, with incredible intensity along the East Coast. Enhanced vorticity can also be observed over southern Florida in tandem with Hurricane Ian. As for Missouri, the mid-levels remain on the calm side with minimal vorticity expected across the region. Late Thursday evening, the GFS and NAM suggested that a band of vorticity extended from NE into SW Missouri would move eastward across the state throughout the late night hours. However, the environment will lack moisture in both the mid- and low-levels. Additionally, the GFS and the NAM are not too keen on the presence of any forcing during this time. Consequently, nothing of significance is expected.
In addition to the lack of low-level moisture, an 850-mb jet is also absent. Moreover, high pressure is expected to prevail across the Central Midwest through the end of the week. As a result of this high pressure system and ridging, a sunny sky can be expected through Thursday.
- Macko
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