Wednesday, September 21, 2022

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 
 
            

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Slight chance for light rain. Low: 61



Thursday:
Becoming partly cloudy. High: 70
 
 

Thursday Night:
Mostly cloudy. Low: 57
 

Friday:
Cloudy. Chance for afternoon showers. High: 64
 
 
 

Friday Night:
Mostly cloudy with clouds departing. Low: 53


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Discussion:


We are looking forward to a shift in the weather as a cold front passes through the area tonight. We’ll get a break from the heat on Thursday and Friday as temperatures reach the 60s. Expect cool morning walks to class as overnight temperatures drop into the 50s. While the possibility is quite low, we may see some very light rain tonight and Friday afternoon due to a low pressure system northwest of us.


Sallot

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Forecasters: Sallot, Smith, Jones, Cochran

Date Issued: 09/21/2022 5:30 PM CDT


Technical Discussion:

The end of this week finally sees a break in these deathly hot temperatures as we officially enter autumn! The jet stream can be seen at 250 mb sitting in central Minnesota Wednesday evening and moves eastward into Thursday. This is followed by a LPS that will be the main focus of this forecast.

A band of vorticity associated with the aforementioned low can be seen at 500 mb passing through mid-Missouri on Thursday at 15Z. However, a large HPS sitting over the majority of the southern U.S. inhibits the circulation from significantly building in our area. This high pressure does not restrict moisture in our area though, as we see saturation at 700 mb for the entirety of the forecasting period, only starting to clear late Friday evening. This moisture is originally associated with a LPS west of Mexico and travels in between a northern high and southern high to reach the CWA. This then combines with moisture from the upper-level low, keeping our area saturated throughout Thursday into Friday, attributing to cloud cover at these times.

Columbia sees a drastic 20 degree temperature drop Wednesday at 21Z due to a cold front sprouting from a SFC LPS sitting in Kansas that shifts our winds from W to N. Partial thickness and MSLP show significant CAA during this time throughout the Upper Mississippi Valley region reaching southward into the CWA. This pairs with possible rain starting on Thursday at 00Z and lasting through the night. However, GFS soundings show low CAPE (<300 J/Kg) during the showers, so no significant convection is predicted.

With the passage of the LPS on Friday evening, precipitation can be expected for northern Missouri with a slight chance it reaches south into Columbia. This is, however, paired with soundings showing 0 CAPE, so the rain, if it comes, will be quiet.

Future forecasters should continue to track the upper level LPS and the potential weather it will bring into Columbia.

Cochran

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