Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 71

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 46

  

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 74

 

 

 
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

Saturday: Sunny. High: 76

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:   

Lots of sunshine and shifting winds from the south will bring temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, closer to the seasonal average for the days ahead. Due to lack of cloud cover, we expect cool mornings as overnight lows drop into the upper 40s. The end of the week will be great for some fall outdoor activities. 

 

-Sallot

 =================================================================

Forecasters: Baker, Sallot, Thomas, Sausen

Date Issued: 09/29/2022 8:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Our forecast today was focused on the NAM, mainly due to it being much closer to the model averages in terms of temperatures than the GFS, although model agreement in terms of the weather pattern for the forecast period is rather high.

The upper level longwave trough that’s been situated over our area for the past few days has finally shifted off to our east, becoming positively tilted as it deamplifies over the Northeast, giving way to a longwave ridge over the central third of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper level low has begun to amplify over the Pacific Northwest, leaving Mid-MO in an area of relatively calm and stable conditions at the 250MB layer through Saturday night.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is progged to form between Iowa and Kansas later this afternoon, slowly working its way into Missouri by Friday morning before being absorbed into the larger high pressure system dominating the area. Although there is a marginal amount of moisture nearby at the 700mb level, it should remain displaced well to the west of the trough eliminating any chance of cloudiness with it.
At the surface, a high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes is to remain in place, sandwiched between a weakening Ian and a nearly stationary low over the Rockies. Surface winds from ESE should slowly shift to E tonight, staying that way through the forecast period.
With a general pattern of backing winds, low moisture and a surface high pressure we can expect pleasant, seasonally average and sunny conditions through the fcst period.

-Thomas