Friday, September 30, 2022

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         


 

Friday: Mainly Sunny. High: 74




Friday Night: Clear. Low: 48
 

 Saturday: Sunny. High: 76
 
 

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 48  



Sunday: Sunny. High: 77

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!


====================================================================

Discussion:    

Sky conditions will remain clear throughout the weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s. You'll want to grab a light jacket for the game Saturday evening as the sun starts to set and radiational cooling begins to take place. Sunday will be our warmest day as sunshine continues to stick around heading into next week.

- McCormack, Peine  


 =================================================================

Forecasters: McCormack, Peine, Aldrich

Date Issued: 09/30/2022 9:00 AM CDT


Technical Discussion:

The 06Z run of the NAM and GFS was used for this forecast, but due to the disagreements in temperature with the NAM, we used the GFS to forecast our high and low temperatures. We believed the NAM was cold biased for temperatures.

At the beginning of our forecast period, we are watching Hurricane Ian in the southeast crawl slowly up the Carolina coast which is preventing any active weather from moving into our area. A low pressure system is currently stagnant over the Inter-mountain West, so we are sandwiched in between with a high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. From 250mb down to the surface, we are relatively quiet, with dry air in place and easterly surface winds keeping temperatures seasonal for this time of year (Avg High: 75, Avg Low: 53).

A Meridional flow is expected throughout the weekend, which will continue to bring clear conditions to our area. We analyzed 850mb temperatures from future GFS 12Z soundings to estimate afternoon high temperatures. We compared these estimates with the NAM to develop our forecast highs. Due to the lack of cloud cover, radiational cooling will take place each night, allowing our temperatures to drop into the upper 40s. 

As Hurricane Ian moves off to the northeast by the end of the weekend, this will allow the trough to our northwest to gradually move east during the early to middle part of next week. The next forecast shift should monitor this trough and look out for increasing chances of rain next week. 

- McCormack, Peine

No comments:

Post a Comment