Monday Night: Clear. Low: 55

 

 

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 84

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 59

 

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 89

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 60

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Discussion:

Mid-Missouri is getting teased with the thought of fall; however, these fall like temperatures will not last long. As the work week progresses, a warming trend begins and we see a return of summer-like temperatures.

Kobielusz

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Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 09/12/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Both the NAM and GFS were considered when deciding a diagnostic model for this forecast. Both models were in fair consensus about the placement of a low pressure system in the Southern Great Lakes, but differed greatly on temperature. Overall, the GFS was used for a deterministic model as the NAM was running about eight degrees above the current temperature. The NBM was also consulted for temperatures and cloud cover. This forecast period will run from Monday night through Wednesday night. 

Currently, mid-Missouri is placed in a transitional zone between an upper-level trough to our east, and an upper-level ridge to our west. All remanence of rainfall over the weekend stays close to the center of low pressure in Southern Lake Michigan. This includes the upper-level jet and upper-level divergence. Considering there is insufficient forcing available, even if there was enough moisture or circulation, any precipitation would have difficulty forming throughout the forecast period. 

Given the northerly winds in the mid-levels, it is no surprise that there is a sufficient lack of moisture. Once again, all areas of circulation are clinging to the low-pressure system in Southern Lake Michigan.

A bubble of high-pressure will dominate the weather of mid-Missouri for the forecast period. Winds at the lower-levels start out northerly, as in the upper-levels, but as the forecast period continues and high pressure sets-in to the east, a more southerly flow will dominate. Once winds start coming from the south, more moisture and warmer air will begin to filter into mid-Missouri. 

Future forecast shifts should beware of models not reaching a clear consensus with temperatures.

 

Kobielusz