Tuesday, September 13, 2022

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 



Tuesday:
Sunny. High: 85.
 
 


Tuesday Night:
Clear. Low: 58.
 
 


Wednesday:
Clear. High: 88.
 
 


Wednesday Night:
Clear. Low: 60.
 
 


Thursday:
Mostly sunny. High: 87.


Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Over the next couple days, a high pressure system will move over Missouri, keeping the sky clear and temperatures above seasonal averages. There will be plenty of sunshine with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Our overnight sky will be clear, with temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. 

Clark
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Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Baker.

Date Issued: 09/13/2022 9:00AM CDT


Technical Discussion:
 
For this forecast period, both NAM and GFS follow the same meridional flow with a trough to our east and a ridge to our west. Both models were used to when analyzing upper levels; however, a closer examination of temperatures reveals NAM having a cold bias around 10 degrees. There is not necessarily a 'problem' to dive into as this forecast period is dominated with by abundant sunshine and high pressure. 

The weather pattern is quite active right now as we have a ridge over the Four Corners right now and a deep trough to our east. This is evident on the 250mb map and follows through on each level. This meridional flow and systems are dominating the CONUS. Missouri happens to be in the northwesterly flow of the high pressure system. At 250mb flow the high pressure system is centered over central Texas. As the ridge slides east throughout our forecast period, what little divergence that is looped around the clockwise flow is weak and and decreases as it follows the northerly flow.
 
A similar story is told at the 500mb level. The high pressure system still looks to be stacked over the Four Corners. The low pressure system to our northeast, situated over the New England area has abundant rotation and vorticity. Weak vorticity looks to move over around 15Z. However, the lower levels will have to support this theory, as we did not have any divergence at this time. What little vorticity that moves over, looks to follow the northwesterly flow. 

Again, the dry weather is supported at the 700mb level. As Missouri is under northwesterly flow, we tend to keep with the cooler air keeping any clouds or moisture out of our area for our forecast period. As the ridhe tracks over Missouri Wednesday afternoon, moisture looks to stay west of Missouri, as the high pressure system loops moisture up and around Missouri through Iowa, stretching all the way east towards New England area. Keeping our area dry for our forecast period. 

Ultimately, the 850mb map confirms our findings at the upper levels. For our forecast period, we are going to stay pretty dry. We could see a few clouds start to creep in Wednesday night after the high pressure moves over, but it looks to stay to the west. The LLJ looks to correlate with the with the 700mb moisture flow. The LLJ over the Central Plains looks to stay west of our area for our forecast period. Leading a sunny sky and above seasonal temperatures. 

-Baker



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