Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

             

Friday Night: Clearing sky. Partly cloudy. Low: 58

Saturday: Sunny. High: 85

Saturday Night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 58

Sunday: Sunny. High: 78

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 50

 

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Discussion:

A warm front moving in Friday night from the south will cause slightly warmer temperatures than the night before. It will also cause Saturday's high to be significantly greater than Friday's with clear and sunny conditions. Saturday night around sunset a cold front will move in and the sky will become mostly cloudy, while also making Sunday's high cool down a little. While Sunday morning may be partly cloudy, the rest of the day will be sunny. Sunday's low will be a bit lower than the night before thanks to minimal cloud cover.

 

Allen

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Forecasters: Labit, Easter, Allen, Travis

Date Issued: 09/23/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

A bit of weather whiplash is incoming with significant temperature variations this weekend. A warmup followed quickly by a cold front will cause rollercoaster-like changes to the region's temperatures. There were significant differences between current conditions and model guidance regarding temperatures and moisture. That said, a blend of the GFS and NAM was still used with less focus on the NAM for timing of frontal passage. Regarding frontal passage, the NAM favored a slower progression of the surface features, lagging behind the GFS by about 6 hours. Seeing as how an upper-level jet streak is currently streaming overhead, the faster GFS solution is more favored.

Largely zonal flow south of an upper-level low over the Dakotas has set up over the Middle- to Lower-Mississippi Valley. A jet streak parked overhead will keep things moving along efficiently. By the end of the forecast period, the large-scale flow regime quickly transitions toward a meridional pattern with a LW trough persisting over the Great Lakes region. On the backside of said trough, a weak short wave seen in the 500-hPa vorticity field will eject SE out of the Upper Midwest early Sunday morning. 

In the lower-levels, moisture is THIN at best...With no moisture or thermodynamic forcing for ascent, this upper-level feature will simply manifest at the surface as a dry low-pressure system. An associated warm front will move north through the region Friday night into early Saturday morning allowing Saturday's high temperatures to reach almost 30 degrees warmer than Friday afternoon's temps. As the low-pressure system moves almost directly over mid-Missouri, a cold front will be dragged behind it allowing temperatures to dip back down to comfortable for Sunday. 

Travis