Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

Friday: Sunny. High: 85

 

Friday Night: Clear. Patchy Fog. Low: 61
 

 

Saturday: Morning Sunshine. Increasing Clouds during the Afternoon. High: 86

 

Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Periods of Showers and Scattered T-storms Possible. Low: 60

 

 

Sunday: Morning Showers Ending. Decreasing Clouds throughout the Afternoon. High: 72

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Discussion:

 We will start off the day similar to yesterday with cool temperatures and fog this morning. We will have plentiful sunshine today which will help warm up our temperatures today to near average. Skies will continue to be clear overnight into Saturday morning, but give way to increasing clouds throughout tomorrow afternoon. Periods of showers with scattered thunderstorms will be likely ahead of an approaching cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Showers will exit the region by Sunday morning followed by decreasing clouds throughout Sunday afternoon with cooler highs in the lower 70s. 

 - McCormack & Peine

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Forecasters: Aldrich, McCormack, Peine

Date Issued: 09/09/2022 7:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This morning's forecast was comprised of mainly a blend of the 06Z run of the NAM and the GFS. Both models had fairly good consensus in terms of handling temperatures and moisture over the weekend.

Two weather systems of note this morning: a cut-off low off to our southeast, and a trough to our northwest with a trailing cold front. Both of these systems will impact our region throughout the mid/late weekend timeframe, but until then, our weather remains fairly quiet.

Moisture return was evident at both 700mb and 850mb by late in the day on Saturday as the aforementioned trough and cut-off low approach the area, bringing with it an increase in cloud cover and precipitation. Forcing at 500mb looks rather impressive from Saturday night into Sunday morning, and with ample moisture, showers and periods of scattered thunderstorms look likely. Instability looks rather meager, however, with CAPE values holding around 500 J/kg, so we decided to keep the mention of thunderstorms in the forecast due to the ascent and forcing associated with both disturbances moving toward the area.
 

Behind the passage of the cold front on Sunday, precipitation and cloud cover should move out of the region, allowing for sunshine to return during the afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.

Future forecasters will want to watch for the return of summer-like temperatures for the middle part of next week as a ridge begins to build across the inter-mountain west and moves into the central plains states.

- Aldrich