Monday, September 19, 2022

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 



 



Monday Night: 
Mostly clear. Low: 72





Tuesday:
 Sunny.  High: 96
 



Tuesday Night: 
Partly cloudy. Low: 71
 




Wednesday: 
Sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon. High: 88





Wednesday Night: 
Overcast with a chance for showers. Low: 57


Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:

Get ready for more humidity and heat to stick around for one more day. Temperatures will be unseasonably hot and close to record breaking on Tuesday. A cold front will bring fall like temperatures Wednesday evening. The cold front is also expected to bring a chance for light showers Thursday morning.

Herion
=================================================================

Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 09/19/2022 5:00 PM CDT


Technical Discussion:
 
Both the GFS and the NAM were considered for the deterministic model for this forecast. Both models had a decent hold of the current low-pressure system in Alberta, which will be the main focus for this forecast, and continued to have a similar stance on how the system will develop throughout the course of the forecast period. Overall, the GFS was chosen because it was running closer to the observed temperature at 20 Z. The NBM was also consulted when discussing temperatures and soundings were used to determine cloud cover and the possibility of rainfall. This forecast is valid from Monday Night through Wednesday Night.

Above average temperatures for the next coming days are going to be due mainly in part to an upper-level ridge across the CONUS. The upper-level jet remains well north of Missouri throughout the day on Tuesday but slowly starts to dip south with the passage of a shortwave trough Wednesday evening, which will begin a shift in winds from southerly to northerly and therefore begin to reduce temperatures. This shortwave trough is the product of the low-pressure system currently in Alberta. 

Moisture in the mid-levels is apparent as southerly winds usher in a much warmer, and more saturated air mass into mid-Missouri. This moist air mass stays put throughout the entire forecast period. This will be the case until the passage of a cold front Wednesday evening, which will begin a reign of cooler and drier air; however, this is out of the scope of our forecast period.
 
Based on soundings for COU, it was determined that the best possible chance for rain would be late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Although precipitation will be light, it is still enough to mention. 

The main problem for this forecast was the timing of the cold front passage. The GFS and NAM disagreed on the timing of this FROPA. This will prove to be a challenge because based on timing, high temperatures could fluctuate, as well as timing of rainfall. Future forecast shifts should continue to monitor how these develop. 

Kobielusz

No comments:

Post a Comment