Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

Tuesday: Morning cloud cover, increasing sunshine in the afternoon    High: 83

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 65

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 85

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 61

Thursday: Sunny. High: 87

Discussion: 

A pretty quiet forecast as we head into the shortened work-week! After areas of patchy fog dissipated this morning, mid-Missouri will be left with some cloud cover to start the day off! These clouds will begin to decrease as the afternoon goes on, similar to the last couple of days! As the sun comes out this afternoon, mid-Missouri is in for a pretty seasonal couple of days with temperatures in your mid to lower 80s and a partly cloudy sky. A northeast wind looks to keep humidity on the low end as well! 

-Baker

Date Issued: 09/06/2022 10:00AM CDT


Technical Discussion: 

The NAM was used for today’s forecast, as it’s initialization of current features - such as high pressure over the Rockies as well as the northeasterly flow over Missouri. NAM seemed to have a better handling on temperatures as GFS was leaning a little cooler. The forecast period is quiet as we are dominated in the northerly flow; therefore, the concentration of this forecast period would be on the temperatures and cloud cover over the next couple of days.
 

The closed low in the southern midsouth has weaken and become disorganized in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The meridional flow has placed mid-Missouri in the center of the weakening low in the south and the powerful high pressure system in the Rockies. This split flow will allow for a short wave to track through Missouri this afternoon around 20-22Z. Weak upper level divergence looks to move through Missouri around 20Z this afternoon and tracks due south through Missouri into northern Arkansas.
 

In correlation to the 250mb divergence, high values of vorticity look to move through at the same time in the same pattern. Hinting at the fact that the upper atmosphere does have some power, a strong, tight circulation associated with the low pressure system in northern Canada looks to send a shortwave into our area (swept out of the low), and with that there is high values of vorticity associated with this shortwave. The shortwave looks to be pretty evident on the 500mb map. This area of vorticity tracks south on the western side of the state, and moves with the upper level wind pattern as it tracks into northern Arkansas. Besides the vorticity present around 20-22Z today, 500mb level looks to stay pretty quiet through our forecast period.
 

Now the 700mb level tells a different story. Winds are out of the northeast have really taken what moisture Missouri was able to hang onto early this week away. Missouri looks to stay relatively dry throughout our forecast period beside the moisture in southeast Missouri looks to track south as it follows the decaying lows flow. What little moisture the shortwave is able to hang onto, looks to dissipate as it tracks through the heat and sun in central Iowa. However, what little moisture looks to move through around the same time as the other levels.
While cooler air prevails for tonight, warm air begins to be advected into mid-Missouri Saturday morning, as our winds shift from west to South at 850 mb. The winds will shift back to the west Sunday morning, but with wind speeds strengthening and cold air being contained to our north, temperatures should remain warmer.
 

The 850mb flow looks to keep Missouri in the northerly flow throughout the forecast period. This will allow what little moisture we have to quickly dry up and temperatures and conditions will keep more comfortable. Winds begin to shift with a more easterly component starting Thursday afternoon around 06Z. Winds quickly shift to the south ahead of our next system; however, that is past the forecast period. Tighter solenoids are seen over the central plains Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the front, indicating warm air advection, so the LLJ might be something future forecasters look at as well to see how much moisture we are able to hang on to!
 

As for rain this afternoon, sounding data confirms what the 700mb level shows. We are quite dry and that 700mb dry layer will not allow for precipitation to make it to the ground, and it even stretches up to around 650mb. Making it a very quite and peaceful forecast.

Future forecasters should make notes of the wind shift occurring Thursday ahead of the front.
 

-Baker