Thursday, September 22, 2022

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 
 
            
  
 
Thursday Night: Overcast as clouds increase. Low: 55




Friday:
Overcast. Showers likely, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. High: 66
 
 
 
 
Friday Night: Clouds start to dissipate overnight. Low:58
 



Saturday:
Clear and sunny. High:85

 
 
 

Saturday Night:
Stays clear. Low: 58


Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:

Cooler temperatures continue until the weekend, with Friday bringing in some cloud cover and possible rain showers. Make sure to pack your umbrella for tomorrow. However, by Saturday we will be back to dry and sunny weather, with temperatures warming back up to the mid-80s, an abrupt change from our fall-like temperature trend.

 =================================================================

Forecasters: VanUnnik, Chirpich, Rangel

Date Issued: 09/22/2022 5:00 PM CDT


Technical Discussion:

The 12Z run of GFS was used for the majority of the forecast, but due to the inconsistency of temperatures, both between GFS runs and with other models, the NAM and NBM were used as guidance for forecasting temperatures. The issue to focus on for this forecast period is tracking the low pressure system that moves east over the northern states towards the Great Lakes region that could bring moisture and thunderstorms to the forecast area.

A wind shift from a northern to a more westerly component occurs on Friday morning, which coincides with the timing of areas of circulation across Missouri at 500mb. Simultaneously at 700mb, a ridge moves into the area, closely followed by a warm front, associated with the aforementioned low pressure system. On Friday afternoon, moisture, veering winds, and negative omega values are present, as seen on soundings, but the lack of CAPE lowers the possibility of thunderstorms forming. Rain showers are more likely for most of the day on Friday. Clouds persist throughout the night, and this, along with a warm FROPA overnight, keep the night a bit warmer and allow for a much warmer day on Saturday.

Although a weak cold front associated with the low pressure system makes way to Missouri, a LLJ at 09Z Saturday, along with a west-southwesterly wind, keeps moisture around central Missouri until later in the morning. After the clearing of the moisture from the LLJ, a return to a more zonal flow and westerly wind will allow clearer skies. Solenoids on the surface map after the clearing of the LLJ indicate WAA during the day on Saturday. WAA along with clear skies will be the reason for the warmer day.

Saturday night remains clear, though Sunday morning shows a strong northerly wind shift, along with more solenoids and a jet stream heading south. Future forecasters should keep in mind that Sunday will likely return to cooler temperatures.

- Chirpich, VanUnnik

No comments:

Post a Comment