Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 63

 

Friday: Foggy in the morning. Sunny in the afternoon. High: 85
 

 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 61

 

Saturday: Mostly Clear. High: 86

 

 

Saturday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 60

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Discussion:

The week will come to a close feeling much like the past few days, with Friday morning fog transitioning to a sunny afternoon. You might want to bring a light jacket with you when you head out the door for the next few days, as the mornings will feel cool with fall-like temperatures. High temperatures heading into the weekend will stick around the mid 80s range with cloud cover increasing the closer we get to Saturday night. Look forward to some rain chances approaching on Sunday but an otherwise dry weekend!

- Chirpich

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Chirpich, Rangel

Date Issued: 09/08/2022 5:00PM CDT

The forecast period - until

Technical Discussion:

 

The 18Z run of NAM40 was chosen for this forecast due to its accuracy with the observed temperature at Sanborn Field this morning, along with the model reaching more of a consensus for future temperatures than the GFS20.

A meridional flow can be observed at 250mb over the northern half of the CONUS throughout the forecast period. This afternoon, a trough axis resides over Montana, before moving southeast and developing a closed low by Sunday morning. Another closed low over Louisiana/Alabama remains relatively stationary throughout the forecast period. Mid-Missouri remains in a west-southwesterly flow throughout Friday and Saturday due to the placement of both of these systems; keeping our days warm and calm.

At 500mb, vorticity associated with these low pressure systems was analyzed, though it steers clear of mid-Missouri until late Sunday morning. Future forecasters should keep an eye on the positively tilted trough making its way to the area around that time.

Due to the absence of relative humidity at 700mb, along with the consultations of soundings, a lack of clouds can be expected throughout the forecast period - until Saturday evening, as we see increasing clouds overnight with the low pressure system approaching the area.

Surface winds remain calm and southerly throughout Thursday, Friday, and most of Saturday, before getting caught in northwesterly flow and increasing in strength Saturday evening due to the approaching trough.

- VanUnnik