Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 50
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 75
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 55
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 80
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 67
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Discussion:
Central Missouri kicks off November with balmy conditions in the 70s throughout the week. A large ridge has started to build bringing with it sunny skies plus warmer air starting today. As this ridge moves eastward, expect cloudier skies and a chance for some rain as we head toward the weekend.Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, Macko
Date Issued: 11/1/2022 5:00 PM CDT
This forecast was based on the GFS due to verifying temperatures and dewpoints earlier today. Due to the lack of any weather impacts expected in the next few days, a persistence forecast was primarily used. Although this forecast period appears to remain calm, we will start to turn our focus toward the end of this week when a more active weather system approaches Mid-Missouri.
In the upper levels, a low pressure is situated over Oklahoma. This will continue to move northeastward over Missouri but it is not expected to affect the region due to its weak nature. Starting Wednesday at 1800Z, an upper-level ridge will build in over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley before progressing eastward on Thursday. Off to our west, an upper-level trough will enter the west coast on Wednesday before amplifying down into the Southwest. As we go forward in time, the trough will start to positively tilt Thursday night with a strong jetstreak over the central plains at 1200Z Friday.
Both the NAM and GFS were in agreement with weak mid-level spin associated with the upper-level low currently in Oklahoma. This weak vorticity will move in as the upper-level low crosses Missouri. Shortly after, a large ridge will build in giving us southerly flow for Wednesday and especially Thursday, helping drive temperatures 10-15 degrees above average.
At the lower levels, significant relative humidity is not perceptible until the end of our forecast period at Friday 1200Z. Soundings of both models did indicate some mid-level saturation Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday which will bring some clouds into our area. Weak rising motion will commence Friday at 0600Z in correlation with the LLJ (Low Level Jet) that will inch closer to us. The LLJ will center itself over Missouri starting around Thursday 2100Z and amplify as we turn the page to Friday. This will most likely bring moisture advection into Mid-Missouri on Friday with surface dew points well into the 50s.
At the surface, the southerly flow over the next couple of days will drive warmer than average temperatures with breezy southerly winds on Thursday bumping temperatures slightly higher for daytime highs. A cold front also becomes evident in the central plains on Friday morning. The next forecast group should begin to monitor this front to see if it does make it here and if it precipitation is associated just ahead of it.
-Simmons
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