Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

  

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 74
 
 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 50

 

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 75

Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 55

 

 

Thursday: Partly Sunny. High: 77

 

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Discussion:

Mid-Missouri is currently in a warm and dry weather pattern due to a high pressure center located over Mississippi. This week will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and a cloudless sky until Wednesday night, when we will see increasing clouds through Thursday as the high pressure center moves off of the mid-Atlantic coast.

- Clark

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Forecasters: Clark

Date Issued: 11/1/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This forecast primarily used the GFS due to its model surface temperatures resembling observed temperatures at KCOU 12z Tuesday. The NAM, on the other hand, was around 9 degrees too low. The NBM and GFS MOS were used for daily temperature forecasting due to the stable weather pattern this week. 

At 300 mb, Missouri is currently under the influence of a low pressure center located over Oklahoma. Winds at this level are southerly and easterly and are around 5-25 kts. Through Tuesday and Wednesday the low will move over Missouri and eventually exit the CONUS as it enters the Atlantic ocean off the coast of North Carolina. As this low leaves, the jet stream will move over MO before a positively-tilted trough enters the Midwest this weekend. Due to the lack of strong upper-level dynamics from Tuesday until Thursday afternoon, our weather pattern will remain calm.

At 500 mb, MO is dominated by a low pressure center associated with the 300 mb low. Before Wednesday 12z some vorticity will be located over MO but will quickly diminish after the 500 mb low moves into the Ohio River valley. A lack of moisture at the 500 mb level will result in no cloud cover despite the present vorticity, however around 06z Thursday this layer will saturate and bring nighttime cloud cover, which will help to keep Wednesday night relatively warm. 

From Tuesday through Thursday afternoon, the 700 mb level will be unsaturated over Missouri. Even as the layers above saturate Wednesday night, the 700 mb layer will remain dry, with RH values never above 35%. 

Unlike the 700 mb level, the 850 mb level will saturate around Wednesday 21z. The 850 mb saturation is due to the formation of a low-level jet situated from central TX to Quebec, which will bring moist Southern air to Missouri. The broad area of saturation located over MO is also associated with areas of warm air advection, providing lift for the formation of clouds. As a result, cloud cover will increase throughout Thursday.

 At the surface, the high pressure currently located over the Southeast will continue to move to the northeast and eventually into the Atlantic ocean around Thursday 12z. As this high pressure moved further to the east, our winds will transition from southwesterly to southerly around Wednesday at 00z. As a result of the wind shift and weak warm air advection, our daily temperatures will increase. The warm air advection will be weak due to the presence of a few broad solenoids associated with southerly winds around 15z Wednesday through 21z Thursday.

-Clark