Wednesday, November 16, 2022






Wednesday:
Mostly cloudy. High: 33
 
 


Wednesday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 22
 
 


Thursday:
Cloudy. Afternoon flurries. High: 39
 
 


Thursday Night:
Decreasing clouds, cold! Low: 19
 
 
 

Friday:
Mostly sunny. High: 29

 

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Discussion:

Low clouds stick around Wednesday and Thursday, keeping overnight temperatures warm (in the relative sense) and daytime highs cool. We may see some flurries on Thursday, then a rapid drop in temperature will lead to some of the coldest lows we've seen so far this season. Under clearing skies, highs Friday may not break freezing- be sure to keep your winter coat handy!

 -Shaw

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Forecasters: Shaw

Date Issued: 11/16/2022 9:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Looking ahead at a cold but mostly dry end to the week; a couple of shortwaves will make their way across MO as we sit under the backside of a trough centered over the Great Lakes region, though unimpressive forcing will keep any significant snowfall chances at bay. There were no major discrepancies between the GFS, NAM, and Euro, so each was considered for this forecast period.

The large upper-level trough responsible for yesterday's snowfall continues to slowly drift east, placing MO under a generally northwesterly flow through the end of the period. As the trough continues to deepen Friday, a jet streak will move across central MO before merging with the subtropical jet over the eastern US, though this looks to have little effect on our sensible weather. Still, vorticity and weak divergence ahead of a shortwave will be present Wednesday evening into Thursday, which will aid in our chances for some flurries Thursday morning into the afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave and corresponding cold front swing through MO around 18z Thursday, which is when flurry chances will begin to increase. Mid-level moisture will stick around for a while after its passage, but things dry out by Friday morning as cloud cover is expected to decrease. Another weak shortwave will move through Friday morning after the FROPA, but a general lack of moisture in all levels will inhibit any significant cloud cover. Ahead of the front, weak WAA moves through Thursday morning, which will help highs get up above freezing. Strong CAA and northwesterly flow resume by 18z Thurs, tanking lows Thursday night into the upper teens.

Soundings show a shallow layer of moisture near the surface throughout Wednesday and Thursday, leading to the persistent low-level cloudiness that's been present for several days now. By Thursday afternoon, a deeper column of moisture moves in, corresponding with the FROPA and best chances for flurries. This layer quickly dries out by early Friday morning, and Friday afternoon looks to be the least cloudy of the past few days. Still, highs may not break freezing Friday, as the 520-dam thickness contour sits over mid-MO

-Shaw

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