Wednesday, November 30, 2022

 


 




Wednesday Night:
Clear. Low: 25
 
 
 
 




Thursday :
Mostly Sunny. High: 45
 
 





Thursday Night:
Mostly Clear. Low: 37
 
 
 
 




Friday:
Partly Sunny. High: 63




 


Friday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Low: 25

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!


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Discussion: 

As we enter the back half of the week there will be below average temperatures tonight as the Jet streak is over the area. As the jet streak moves out of the area the CWA will return temperatures to the 40’s. Moving into Friday we will have southerly winds bringing some clouds and temperatures above average into the 60’s. Looking into the weekend there will be clear skies and 40’s.

 -Jones
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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith

Date Issued: 11/30/2022 6:30 PM CST

Technical Discussion: 



The midweek brings the upper-level jet streak over Missouri caused by a trough moving over the area., causing the drop in temperature the CWA experienced today. Due to the large amounts of disagreement between the GFS, NAM and NWS surface map we chose the GFS because it historically shows a better handling of calm weather.


The 250Mb map has a trough across the area bringing the upper-level jet stream into the CWA. A weak ridge moving into the area will push the jet streak out of the area by Thursday 00:00Z. The end of the week brings in a trough keeping the upper-level jet steam in the CWA for the remainder of the forecasting period. At the 500mb level vorticity is not seen in the area during the whole forecasting period.


The 700mb map shows a LPS to the NW of Missouri continuing to be pushed into Canada leaving Missouri in zonal flow cause low humidity levels for the whole forecasting period. Another LPS will pass through the north, Saturday 03:00Z, but the moisture stays north of Missouri. At the 850mb level there is moisture entering the area at 06:00Z Friday due to the LLJ. The low LLJ continues to strengthen throughout the day reflected in the strengthening of the moisture transport vectors. The moisture will move out by 06:00Z Saturday.


At the surface a warm front will move through the area on 03:00Z Thursday which brings a wind shift from the North to the South driving warm, moist air, supported by the LLJ as seen on the 850mb map. This will increase throughout the day as the winds pick up from 5 mph at 12:00Z Thursday to 20mph at 15:00Z Friday. A cold front will pass through the area at 03:00Z Saturday bringing another wind shift back to the North bringing colder air into the area.


Thursday will bring warmer temperatures and an above average high on Friday of 63 due to winds shifting from the east to the south. Temperatures from the GFS plumes show the influence of the upper-level map’s jet steak over our CWA this afternoon bringing the low to 25 tonight. The warm front shown by the surface map at 03:00Z will bring warmer temperatures, giving Sanborn a high of 45 on Thursday and a low of 37. Friday will bring even warmer temperatures due to the southern winds. This will bring the high to 63. Due to the LPS passing through the CWA on Saturday at 03:00Z, a cold front will drop the temperatures through the night reaching down to 25. GFS soundings show clouds will enter the area by 06:00Z Friday. As the day progresses, the cloud coverage will increase. The weekend will bring regular seasonal temperatures and clear skies.

-Jones

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