Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday Night: Overcast with rain showers. Low: 34
Friday: Cloudy in the morning, sunny by the afternoon. High: 41
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Discussion:
The cold front that passed Thursday afternoon drops our temperatures for the end of the week. Expect showers Thursday night, but we'll be dry by Friday morning. Get those winter coats out for any walks to class, and you'll still want them in the afternoons as we barely warm up into the 40s headed into the weekend.=================================================================
Forecasters: Chirpich, VanUnnik
Date Issued: 11/10/2022 5:00 PM CST
The 12Z run of the GFS was used for this forecast as it reached a strong consensus with very few outliers compared to the NAM, which had a wide spread of values. The main focus of this forecast is how the passage of a cold front Thursday afternoon will affect temperatures and precipitation for the weekend.
The aforementioned cold front is associated with a low pressure system located over the Northern Plains Region of the US. The deep trough associated with the low pressure system puts the forecast area in a meridional pattern, which aptly describes the changing weather on its way for the region. The evidence of the cold front is clear as the winds shift from southwest at 21Z on Thursday to northwest at 00Z on Friday. Warmer than average temperatures transition to colder than average temperatures after FROPA. Simultaneously, the jet stream dips below Missouri and allows polar air into the region.
Moisture found from 700mb down to the surface extends ahead of the front. Soundings from Friday at 09Z show a saturated atmosphere from 600mb down to the surface. High omega values were also observed, along with TT reaching as high as 47, but the lack of CAPE and overwhelming amount of CIN (around 2000 J/kg) severely limits the convective potential for this system. So, while thunder is possible, nothing more is expected. Rainfall accumulations overnight on Thursday will total 0.25-0.5." Around 12Z Friday, the sounding profile begins to desaturate, signalling the end of the rain event.
The northwesterly flow continues for the entirety of the forecast period, and tightly packed thickness contours behind the front demonstrate the cool air flooding the region. One thing to note is that the 5400m thickness contour, dips below Missouri into Tennessee on Friday night. Consequently, if there was to be any precipitation over the weekend, it would likely fall as snow or sleet rather than rain. However, the weekend stays dry, but future forecasters should take note of the placement of the 5400m contour for upcoming forecast shifts.
-Chirpich
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