Thursday, November 3, 2022

 



 

Thursday Night:
Cloudy. Low:65

 

 

Friday: Cloudy. High: 77
 
 
 


Friday Night:
Overcast with possible thunderstorms. Low:47
 


 
Saturday:  Partly cloudy. High: 60



 
 Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 47

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!


====================================================================

Discussion:

A low pressure system will influence our weather over the weekend. Friday will be cloudy, but warm, before rain and possible storms overnight - but don't worry, we should only have a slight drizzle and clouds by game time Saturday!


- VanUnnik
 =================================================================

Forecasters: Chirpich, Rangel, VanUnnik

Date Issued: 11/3/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:
 

The 12Z run of the GFS was utilized for this forecast, due to its tighter temperature consensus when compared to the NAM, which had a broad range of outliers. The problem of the day centers around the approaching low pressure system, along with the associated precipitation totals and thunderstorm likelihood on Friday night.

At 250 mb, a jet stream resides over the Midwest for the entire forecasting period. A deep, long wave trough encapsulates the western CONUS, causing a southwesterly wind in mid-Missouri. With the jet stream influencing the motion of this trough as it makes way easterly, winds in Missouri will begin to shift more southerly around 03Z Saturday. Around the same time, strong divergence over Missouri is evident at this level as well.
 
At 500 mb, a low pressure system over Arizona makes way towards the Great Lakes. This system is associated with strong bands of vorticity, which will affect Missouri beginning around 00Z Saturday, and continuing throughout the forecast period. 
 
Moisture is present on the 700mb map from Friday at 12Z to Saturday at 15Z, along with soundings showing a saturated temperature profile throughout these times. Cloud cover is expected throughout the day and night Friday, and clearing on Saturday. This moisture from around 06Z to 09Z is expected to produce precipitation values around 1.00."

Southwesterly wind flow is constant on all levels including 850 mb. A strong low level jet Friday at 06Z will advect moisture from the Gulf. This moisture continues into Friday night, further supporting the conclusion of rain chances.

Analysis of all mandatory levels allowed us to see that the low pressure system is evident at all levels, and as it nears Missouri early Saturday morning, we will experience wind shifts. The nearing low pressure system, along with analysis of solenoids at the surface, allow us to conclude that WAA will take place on Friday, leading to our seasonably high temperatures, before CAA late Saturday morning, bringing a cool and cloudy day. Sunday may experience more WAA after the passing of the system.

Model soundings support Friday night moisture and precipitation levels. Strong positive and negative omega values overnight on Friday result in atmospheric mixing. These omega values, along with a TT in the high 40s, and a K-index in the mid-30s, indicate possible thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, though short-lived.


-Rangel

No comments:

Post a Comment