Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 53

 
 

 

Thursday : Mostly clear. High: 76

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 62

 

Friday :  Cloudy. High: 77

 

 

Friday Night: Cloudy and rainy. Low: 50

 

 

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Discussion:

Our lovely clear and sunny weather will come to an end this week. Mostly sunny sky on Thursday will slowly give way to more and more clouds as we head into the weekend. Friday night at around 7pm we see it start to rain with the heaviest coming late Friday/early Saturday morning. The rain will clear out by about 4am Saturday morning. Our highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the mid 70’s but the cold front that brings our precipitation will shift our winds from the south to the west and bring our Saturday highs into the mid 50’s. Our lows these days will range from the low 50’s to low 62’s.

- Smitty

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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith

Date Issued: 11/2/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 
Moving towards the end of the week there will be precipitation starting Friday evening due to the cold front brought in by a LPS that will move through the CWA beginning on Friday night around 03:00 Z. The GFS was used for this forecast due to it handling the moisture better and arrival of the LPS into the area.


The 250mb map of heights, winds, and divergence shows a short-wave ridge exiting the region with a long wave trough following behind it causing the active weather that will move through the CWA for this forecasting period. The jet stream, following the pressure contours, will move over the area starting at 00:00 Z Thursday, a jet streak is NW of Missouri from Friday 12:00 Z until the end of the forecasting period. There is also a line of divergence just east of the jet stream sitting over Columbia on 03:00 Z Saturday.


The 500mb map shows vorticity associated with the aforementioned divergence. Then, as the upper level LPS moves into the region, a new round of vorticity moves eastward. However, this vort max stays clear of our area, sitting over southern Iowa at 12:00Z Saturday.


At 700mb there begins to be midlevel moisture moving into the area beginning at Friday 12:00 Z causing clouds, the moisture increases through the evening. On Saturday at 03:00 Z there is a line of moisture ahead of the LPS associated with the 500mb vorticity and 250mb divergence. The 850mb supports the 700mb timing and placement of moisture. 850mb moisture transport vectors show a strong low level jet aiding in the movement of warm moist air into the region beginning Friday 09:00 Z and building towards the end of the forecast period.


The Surface map’s mean sea level pressure contours show a cold front moving through the area on 03:00 Z Saturday, shifting the winds from the south to the west. The precipitation traveling with the anafront starts at 00:00 Z Saturday and continues until 12:00 Z. Plumes show around 0.6in of rain on Friday night. It should be noted that while GFS was used for the forecast SREF plumes were used for QPF totals due to GEFS plumes not being available. Similarly, Sharpy was unresponsive and Tropical Tidbits was used for soundings. The soundings showed upper-level clouds for most of the forecasting period and agreed with the timing of the aforementioned midlevel cloud cover and rain.


Future forecasters should continue to track the cold front and the moisture that is being brought to the CWA.


-Jones