Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 76

 
 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 62

 

Friday: Broken clouds. High: 79

 

 

Friday Night :  Overcast with rain. Low: 50

 

 

 Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 60

 

 

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Discussion:

Conditions will remain warm on Thursday with a high in the upper 70's and a mostly clear sky continuing into Thursday night. Clouds will start to build Friday morning, which will culminate in rain showers amounting 0.5-1.0" on Friday night. Temperatures will cool down on Saturday with a high in the lower 60's.

- Sausen

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Forecasters: Sallot, Sausen, Baker

Date Issued: 11/3/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The main concern of this forecast is an approaching longwave trough and the associated precipitation ahead of the trough. Due to a much better handle on the current conditions, the GFS was primarily used to construct this forecast.

At 250mb, the jet stream resides over the CWA for the entire forecast period with wind speeds ranging from 70kts to 120kts, reaching this maximum on Friday around 12z. A deep, longwave trough to the west of the CWA is bringing south, southwesterly winds for the entire forecast period. The winds shift to a westerly component around Saturday at 18Z, at the end of the forecast period. This south and southwesterly flow is visible on all levels. Additionally, strong divergence is evident around 00z to 06z on Saturday as the jet pushes the trough further east into the CWA.

At 500mb, heightened vorticity is expected in the CWA around Saturday 00z through the end of the forecast period.

At 700mb, negative vertical velocity is present in the CWA, with the greatest velocity on Saturday around 00z to 03Z. This timing correlates with the upper level divergence and vorticity. Additionally, moisture is expected to reside in the CWA from Friday 12z to Saturday 06z, further supporting the chance of precipitation Friday night into Saturday.

A strong low level jet is present at 850mb, with wind speeds reaching 50kts around Friday 18z and Saturday 00z, bringing warm, moist air into the CWA. As such, temperatures at 850 are quite warm, ranging about 10°C to 15°C for the entire forecast period.

Model soundings also support precipitation Friday 00z to Saturday 06z with deep moisture and precipitable water values ranging 1 to 1.4 inches. Coupled with relatively unimpressive CAPE, showers are more likely than convective storms.

Overall, southwesterly flow is bringing warm, moist air into the CWA ahead of a longwave trough, lending to warm conditions in the mid to upper 70s today and Friday, and showers Friday night. Temperatures are expected to cool into the 60s Saturday following the precipitation.


-Sallot