Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 27

 

 

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 18

 

 

 

Saturday: Few Clouds in the Afternoon. High: 35

 

 

 

Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 17

 

 

Sunday: Sunny. High: 43

 

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Discussion: 

High temperatures today will not break the freezing mark today due to the passage of a cold front that has reinforced the cold air. Another cold front is expected to pass through the region midday tomorrow that will bring another shot of cold air that will keep our tempratures well-below average (avg: high:54; low:35) for the remainder of the weekend. For those headed to the Mizzou football game tomorrow evening, be sure to dress warm and wear plenty of layers because temperatures will be in the 20s during the game.

- Peine

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Forecasters: Peine, McCormack, Aldrich

Date Issued: 11/18/2022 9:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

A blend of both the 06Z run of the GFS and NAM were used for this forecast. Both models had a good consensus with temperatures for the forecast period with the only excpetion being Saturday's high temperatures. The NAM seems to be cold biased while the GFS seems to be warm biased, so a blend between the two models was used for Saturday's forecast. The problem of the day is forecasting the well-below average (avg: high:54; low:35) temperatures.

At 250mb, an amplified trough is currently positioned over the Great Lakes region that is placing us in a strong northwesterly flow aloft. At 500mb, there are currently two shortwaves present around our area. There is one that moved by the area last night that brought a cold front through the region and a second one that is currently positioned over Nebraska. The second shortwave and its corresponding cold front will move through the region tomorrow during the late morning hours, which will reinforce more cold air advection, leading to the continuation of winter-like temperatures for the weekend. At 700mb and 850mb, moisture is limited with the only potential for clouds being assoicated with the passage of the cold front on Saturday, therefore dry conditions will be present this weekend. At the surface, an area of low pressure is positioned over the Great lakes and last nights cold front over southeast Missouri.

 

Temperatures will remain well-below average for the entirety of the weekend with today and Saturday being the coldest days due to strong cold air advection in the wake of the two cold fronts. Temperatures will try to rebound on Sunday with backing winds from north to southwest Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for warm air advection. Even with sunny conditions and warm air advection on Sunday, temperatures will remain well-below average for this time of the year.

 

The amplified trough over the eastern CONUS will begin to move off to the east allowing for a ridge to move in from the west at the beginning of next week. This could potentially be the start of a warming trend that future forecasting shifts should look out for.

- Peine, McCormack