Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

 
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 19

 

 

 

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 27

 

 

 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 18

 

 

 

 

Saturday: Mainly sunny. High: 37

 

 

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low:19

 

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Discussion:

Expect well below freezing temperatures in the mornings as we head into the weekend, and Friday won't reach above freezing at all! The last few days before Thanksgiving break will be dry and cold with minimal cloud cover. Make sure to dress warm and give your car time to warm up if you're heading anywhere.

- Chirpich

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Forecasters: Chirpich and VanUnnik

Date Issued: 11/17/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

The 12Z run of the GFS was chosen for this forecast as its predicted temperatures for Thursday better matched the observed temperatures. The NAM was running warm, which did not match up with the expected colder actuallytemperatures for the days ahead. The main focus of this forecast was to examine how the flow of a low-pressure system near the Great Lakes region brings colder temperatures to the Midwest.

The aforementioned low-pressure system reaches from 300MB all the way down to the surface, signalling its strength. As of Thursday evening, the forecast area is in a zonal flow as it lies at the bottom of the trough associated with the low-pressure system. This lends itself to more westerly winds until the trough axis passes. After this passage, the wind shifts to a more northwesterly flow, which allows an influx of cold air to enter the region for Friday. The polar jet also dips further south Thursday night and aids in the decrease in temperatures for the weekend.

Moisture wise, soundings demonstrated dry conditions for the forecast period, so precipitation is not expected for the area. However, the low-level jet appears Thursday night and Saturday night, which results in partial cloud cover those two nights. This will help in keeping in the little heat the area gains during the day, but all overnight lows are still expected to be well below freezing. Following the passage of the aforementioned trough on Saturday, high pressure builds into the area which further limits the chance for precipitation.

- Chirpich