Monday, November 14, 2022

 




Monday:
Increasing cloudiness this afternoon. High: 45
 
 


Monday Night:
Snowy. Low: 31
 
 


Tuesday:
Mostly cloudy. High: 40
 
 


Tuesday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Low: 25
 
 
 

Wednesday:
Partly Cloudy. High: 35

 

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Discussion: The first snow of the season is in store for mid-Missouri tonight as a low pressure system from the southwest brings some blustery conditions along with it. While Columbia could see some heavy snow around this evening around midnight, the duration of the precipitation will be relatively fleeting. Expect snowfall amounts to measure between 0.5 and 1.5 inches.

- Schneringer
 

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Forecasters: Schneringer, Samson, Travis

Date Issued: 11/14/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 


The main focus of this forecast is a low pressure system that will pass over Missouri this evening and into next morning. This low is expected to produce snowfall amounts between 1 to 2 inches across the forecast region around midnight tonight. A blend of the NAM and GFS were used for this forecast, as well as the EURO.

GOES-16 WV imagery shows a low centered over New Mexico this morning. A model indicated shortwave in the upper levels will progress from the southwest throughout the day. By 00Z tonight a split jet pattern is established over the lower Mississippi valley, with the wave moving over the forecast region around midnight. 500-mb plan-view maps indicate the strongest vorticity associated with the low will be to our southeast, but adequate amounts are derived to indicate precipitation potential over Columbia. GFS time-height plot for Columbia shows a dry slot just above 850mb this evening until midnight, with the atmosphere becoming saturated up to 300mb around midnight. Adequate forcing for precipitation is present around 06Z tonight, as well as a dendretic growth zone 4300 ft. deep. The conditions favorable to heavy precipitation are fleeting over us however, which will cap the snowfall amounts to well below 3 or 4 inches. A more likely outcome will see Columbia receive above an inch before the system progresses past us.
Westerly flow begins to build at all levels moving through the rest of the period, keeping the temperatures blustery through Wednesday.

-Schneringer

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