Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

  

Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 64
 
 

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 50

 

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 77

Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds to partly cloudy. Low: 58

 

 

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 71

 

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Discussion:

Mid-Missouri is currently warming as southerly winds are bringing in warm and moist tropical air. This will likely provide cloud cover for the week with the most cover on Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday looks to have high temperatures in the mid 60s warming to upper 70s Wednesday and daytime cloud cover will inhibit heating on Thursday, leaving the high in the lower 70s. The low Tuesday night is in the low 50s and Wednesday night in the upper 50s.

- Ritsema

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Forecasters: Clark

Date Issued: 11/1/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This forecast used a blend of GFS and NAM due to consistency between the two on the location of the the trough throughout the week, similarities in moisture content in mid-Missouri, and wind speeds and direction.

At 250 mb, Missouri is currently situated under a weak ridge, with winds from the west at 40 knots. The trough over the western United States we continue to make its way to the east, reaching Missouri Thursday night into Friday morning. As the trough gets closer to Missouri the wind direction will shift to the southwest and picking up speed. Little divergence is seen throughout the forecasting period.

Similar conditions were seen at 500 mb with the trough moving into the Central Plains and the Midwest later this week. A shortwave can be seen on both GFS and NAM causing vorticity to increase Thursday morning around 06z, this could help cloud formation to occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds are southwest the entire forecasting period with increasing velocity in the vicinity of the approaching low pressure system as the week progresses.

Moisture at 700 mb from southwest Missouri will creep into mid-Missouri on Tuesday allowing for cloud cover for most of the day. This will block out some of the daytime heating keeping temperatures cooler on Tuesday. This moisture moves out of the area Wednesday and southwest winds will warm Missouri close to record highs. Thursday, the trough will begin to move into the area and along with it moisture and vertical velocity. We will see an increase of cloud cover again on Thursday due to this moisture and upward motion. 

At 850 mb, winds are currently from the south with a shift to southwest expected to occur Wednesday 00z. An increase in the LLJ is seen over Missouri on Thursday and  will be a great forcing mechanism for advection to occur. It will be bringing very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

At the surface, winds are from the east on Tuesday, shifting to the south Wednesday at 06z, persisting through Thursday. High dewpoint temperatures move in on Wednesday ahead of the low pressure system and frontal passage.

-Ritsema