Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 22
Thursday: Cloudy. High: 39
Thursday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 19
Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 27
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 18
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Discussion:
Clouds will continue to stick around for the next few days and the area will see a big drop in the daytime temperatures between Thursday reaching 39 and Friday only getting to 27. Come Friday the skied will clear up leaving the evening clear allowing temperatures to drop down into the teens. Keep your winter jacket on you as the cold weather persists.
-Jones
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Forecasters: Jones, Smith, Travis
Date Issued: 11/16/2022 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
The GFS was used because of the far more accurate representation of moisture over the Great Lakes Region.
The subtropical jet sits off to the south of Missouri with the streak being over middle Tennessee with the Polar Jet streaking in over central Missouri continuing the trend of cold weather. The low-pressure system over the Great Lakes will take vorticity out of the region until 00Z Saturday when another band of weaker circulation moves over mid-MO.
As we move lower in the atmosphere we see the low-pressure system centered farther and farther east. The moisture giving us last night’s flurries will move out of the area by 03Z Thursday. A notable, but insignificant amount of moisture will move into the region late Thursday morning. The air will become saturated enough to form limited low level clouds at 15Z Thursday. Soundings show these clouds will stick around until 03Z Friday before tapering off. Higher up in the mid levels, CAA will persist for the duration of the forecast period, whereas in the low levels temperature advection displays a typical diurnal pattern (WAA during the day, CAA during the night).
The surface low resides over Rhode Island and this system is responsible for the significant precipitation in the Northeast. A HPS over the Intermountain West will be the main driver of weather as we head into the weekend. The center of this system will eventually end up over the panhandles of OK and TX. This high pressure will give us a mostly clear sky over the next few days. Our cold temperatures will continue to stick around with a high of 40 on Thursday and a significantly colder high of 27 on Friday. This is due to a very weak, upper-level shortwave that drags a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon. Our lows will be in the high teens both days.
The GFS was used because of the far more accurate representation of moisture over the Great Lakes Region.
The subtropical jet sits off to the south of Missouri with the streak being over middle Tennessee with the Polar Jet streaking in over central Missouri continuing the trend of cold weather. The low-pressure system over the Great Lakes will take vorticity out of the region until 00Z Saturday when another band of weaker circulation moves over mid-MO.
As we move lower in the atmosphere we see the low-pressure system centered farther and farther east. The moisture giving us last night’s flurries will move out of the area by 03Z Thursday. A notable, but insignificant amount of moisture will move into the region late Thursday morning. The air will become saturated enough to form limited low level clouds at 15Z Thursday. Soundings show these clouds will stick around until 03Z Friday before tapering off. Higher up in the mid levels, CAA will persist for the duration of the forecast period, whereas in the low levels temperature advection displays a typical diurnal pattern (WAA during the day, CAA during the night).
The surface low resides over Rhode Island and this system is responsible for the significant precipitation in the Northeast. A HPS over the Intermountain West will be the main driver of weather as we head into the weekend. The center of this system will eventually end up over the panhandles of OK and TX. This high pressure will give us a mostly clear sky over the next few days. Our cold temperatures will continue to stick around with a high of 40 on Thursday and a significantly colder high of 27 on Friday. This is due to a very weak, upper-level shortwave that drags a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon. Our lows will be in the high teens both days.
-Smitty
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