Monday Night - Clear. Low: 43
Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Significantly colder.
Low: 25
Wednesday - Sunny. High: 35
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Discussion:
Get ready for a weather roller coaster this week! The warming trend will end tomorrow evening as a cold front will pass through bringing temperatures down into the 20s and 30s for Wednesday.Forecasters: Cook, Herion, Kobielusz
Date Issued: 11/28/2022 5:00pm CST
Technical Discussion:
Nice weather to start out the week, right? Well, it unfortunately wont last. From severe weather in the southeast region of the United States to a biting cold front for the rest of the central and eastern states, it's shaping up to be an active weather week. For current weather conditions, both the NAM and the GFS were fairly close, so a blend of both models, along with the NBM, were used in the making of this forecast.
The notable event for this forecast period is the passage of the long wave trough Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. This trough is going to be bringing with it the likelihood for significant severe weather in the southeastern part of the United States Tuesday evening. However, this is out of our CWA. What will be in our CWA is a powerful cold front being ushered in by the surface low situated over Lake Superior. This cold front will pass through mid-Missouri Tuesday evening. This passage will drop the temperatures by nearly 40 degrees (Fahrenheit).
Upper level models show the long wave trough moving off the rocky mountains into the central US during Tuesday. 500mb data shows significant vorticity signatures over Missouri throughout Tuesday Night. however, there seems to be a lack of upper level moisture, rendering the vorticity harmless. 700mb data and 850mb shows a little bit of moisture present, but not enough to suggest any precipitation. This is supported by model soundings showing a lack of deepened saturation that would suggest precipitation. However, model soundings do show lower level saturation around 850mb from late Tuesday morning to Tuesday afternoon, suggesting low level cloud cover. The cloud cover will dissipate for a short while. After the cold front passes Tuesday evening, the cloud cover will pick up again as suggested by saturation that is below 850mb height. This cloud cover will dissipate later Tuesday night, some time after midnight, leading way to a clear sky for the rest of the forecast period.
Looking out ahead of our forecast period, there seems to be a good chance for rain over the weekend, and future forecasting shifts should monitor the development of this system.
- Cook
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