Monday Night: Snow. Low: 32
Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 36
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 23
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 32
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 21
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Discussion: Snow is on the way. 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected to accumulate overnight. Snow will start late Monday night and continue through Tuesday morning. This could cause adverse road conditions for the morning commute.
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Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz
Date Issued: 11/14/2022 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Upper level maps show divergence signatures over mid-Missouri as the Artic Jet runs into the sub-tropic jet stream. The strongest signatures fall south of Columbia. This area of divergence moves out of Missouri late Tuesday morning. Strong signatures of vorticity aligns with the arrival of the divergence. These vorticity signatures stay the entire duration of the forecast period.
At 700 MB, moisture levels are high across Mid-Missouri through Tuesday night. There is mild levels of Vertical Velocity but the higher signatures will stay south of Columbia.
At the lower levels, model soundings show the saturation building into Monday evening. This correlates with the arrival of the low pressure system that will move through Columbia Monday night and leave Tuesday evening.
Model soundings show saturation building at 600 MB at the start of the shift. It continues to build throughout the evening. However, there is a dry pocket between the levels of 700 MB and 850 MB that may decrease the amount of snow that reaches the surface. This pocket will decrease in size around midnight. Snow will continue to fall until Tuesday morning. Model runs show totals between one and two inches. However, due to ground temperatures being above 40 degrees, it will take longer for snow accumulation to occur. This could bring the amounts closer to the lower half of model totals.
After the passing of the system, temperatures will continue to stay in the thirties as lows in the lower twenties. Cloud coverage will dissipate late Tuesday and stay mostly clear as the week progresses.
Both models were in agreement with the placement of the surface low that will cross through mid-Missouri over the forecasting period. However, the NAM was showing warmer temperatures in comparison to the GFS. Because of this, we decided to use the GFS. Model soundings were consulted to determine the timing of the snow. We also looked to the NBM for temperature guidance as well. The most pressing issue of our shift is how much snow we will see Monday night.
Upper level maps show divergence signatures over mid-Missouri as the Artic Jet runs into the sub-tropic jet stream. The strongest signatures fall south of Columbia. This area of divergence moves out of Missouri late Tuesday morning. Strong signatures of vorticity aligns with the arrival of the divergence. These vorticity signatures stay the entire duration of the forecast period.
At 700 MB, moisture levels are high across Mid-Missouri through Tuesday night. There is mild levels of Vertical Velocity but the higher signatures will stay south of Columbia.
At the lower levels, model soundings show the saturation building into Monday evening. This correlates with the arrival of the low pressure system that will move through Columbia Monday night and leave Tuesday evening.
Model soundings show saturation building at 600 MB at the start of the shift. It continues to build throughout the evening. However, there is a dry pocket between the levels of 700 MB and 850 MB that may decrease the amount of snow that reaches the surface. This pocket will decrease in size around midnight. Snow will continue to fall until Tuesday morning. Model runs show totals between one and two inches. However, due to ground temperatures being above 40 degrees, it will take longer for snow accumulation to occur. This could bring the amounts closer to the lower half of model totals.
After the passing of the system, temperatures will continue to stay in the thirties as lows in the lower twenties. Cloud coverage will dissipate late Tuesday and stay mostly clear as the week progresses.
-Herion
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