Tuesday, November 8, 2022

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 


 

Tuesday Night:
Mostly cloudy. Low: 53

 
 



Wednesday:
Mostly sunny. High: 77






Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 58

 
 



Thursday
: Partly cloudy. High: 71
 
 
 

                   

Thursday Night:
Rain with thunder possible. Low: 34

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!


====================================================================

Discussion:

Mid-Missouri stays warm through Thursday as we are under an area of high pressure. A cold front will then pass through our area Thursday night. This cold front will bring us rain then drop our temperature for Thursday night. Precipitation totals are expected to range from .25 to .5 inches.

-Meier
 =================================================================

Forecasters:Simmons, Meier, Macko

Date Issued: 11/8/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:
 
We used both the GFS20 and the NAM12 for our forecast. However, we mainly used the GFS as it was more consistent when it came to forecasting moisture amounts. The biggest problem we face is that a cold front will pass through our area Thursday night bringing the region precipitation.

In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, a ridge will be over us until Thursday night. While the ridge is over us, westerly flow will dominate. Upper-level flow will then shift to the southwest as the jet stream moves over us. The winds will be approximately 85 knots and no jet-streaks are forecast. There is very little upper-level wind divergence over our area when the jet stream moves in.

In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a strong low-pressure system is seen over northern California. The low-pressure system will then track northwest as the week goes on. When it reaches the Dakotas and Minnesota Thursday night, the low-pressure system causes considerable amounts of vorticity to come over Mid-Missouri. This coupled with high relative humidity and lots of Omega at 700mb raises the chance of precipitation Thursday night. Thunder may be possible overnight. Severe weather is not expected as CAPE values do not break 100 J/kg, and CIN values are expected to be in the mid 200s. Additionally, lifted index values are expected to range from 0 to 2.

In the lower levels of the atmosphere, moisture is present throughout the entire week. Southerly flow is seen all week until the wind shifts to the northwest when a cold front moves through our area Thursday night. After this front passes, the area dries out quickly with cold air advection occurring. Cold air moves in making for a cold night Thursday.
 
Precipitation is expected from 9PM Thursday to 12AM Friday. Moderate intensity of rainfall is forecast bringing us .25 to .5 inches of rain.

-Meier

No comments:

Post a Comment