Tuesday Night: Clearing Overnight. Low: 25
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 39
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 26
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 48
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 39
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Discussion:
A cold front will pass over mid-Missouri around 9PM on Tuesday. This cold front will drop our temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday. As winds shift to the south on Thursday, warming will ensue.
Forecasters: Macko, Simmons, Meier
Date Issued: 11/29/2022 5:00 PM CST
The GFS20 was the model that was mainly used as it resolved Tuesday morning temperatures slightly better than the NAM12 which was running warm. However, both models were in agreement and were used to forecast. The problem of the day is the cold front that will be passing through Tuesday night.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough is seated over the Great Plains. The trough and jet stream will move into mid-Missouri around 6Z Wednesday, before exiting our region by Wednesday at 18Z. With the presence of the trough gone, a ridge will dominate our region for the entirety of our forecast shift.
In the mid levels, the trough that passes over us will bring us a strong band of vorticity from 3Z to 9Z Wednesday. Even though there is significant vorticity, very low relative humidity and Omega diminishes any chance of rain. After the trough and vorticity leave, ridging will dominate. Relative humidity and Omega values will remain very low throughout the entire week.
In the low levels, analysis of wind and temperatures indicate the presence of a cold front, and is expected to pass over mid-Missouri around 3Z Wednesday. After the front passes, cold air advection (CAA) takes place. CAA is expected over mid-Missouri until a surface high moves over us Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A very strong low level jet with winds greater than 60 knots is anticipated to move directly over us Friday at 3Z. This strong LLJ will advect moisture and warm air into mid-Missouri overnight on Thursday. Warm air advection is very prominent starting Thursday night and lasting until the end of our forecast period.
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