Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 47. Easterly winds, 5-10 mph

 

 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High: 57. east-southeasterly winds, 5-10 mph

 

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 54. South-easterly winds, 5-10 mph

 

 

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 78. Southerly winds, 5-10 mph

                  

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 62. Southerly winds, 5-10 mph

 

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Discussion: 

Bring out those shorts. We could break a record high on Wednesday as Missouri gives us a taste of summer before temperatures drop later in the week.

 

- Herion

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Forecasters: Cook, Herion, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 11/7/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

  

There was a surprising agreement by by both the NAM and the GFS models on current conditions, with the NAM being a little more accurate to real time current conditions. Because of this, we elected to use the NAM12 model for our forecast. 

 

Mid-Missouri is under the influence of an upper level ridge that spans from over Tennessee well into Northern Canada. This ridge is bringing quiet weather to mid-Missouri. 250mb data shows the ridge lingering around until Thursday morning, where a strong low pressure system will push in from the west and force the ridge to move off to our east. 

 

850mb and 700mb data shows an increase in mid level moisture over Missouri. 850mb data shows moisture moving into the region by way of a strong LLJ Monday night. This moisture will be present all the way through the forecasting period. This moisture will lead to widespread cloud coverage over the area throughout the forecasting period. This is supported by model soundings showing low level saturation from Monday night through Thursday morning. 700mb shows moisture moving into the region Tuesday afternoon and passing Wednesday morning. This will bring more cloud cover to the upper levels. with all this moisture, a stray light shower cannot be ruled out. Model soundings suggest the slight possibility for light rain throughout the overnight hours of Monday night and Tuesday night with saturation appearing to extend all the way down to the surface.

 

The low that will be moving in from the west will be bringing a drastic shift in surface temperatures and conditions when it moves into the region later in the week, but this is out of our forecasting range. Future forecasting shifts should monitor this system.

 

- Cook