Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 75

 
 

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 55

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 80

 

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 64

 

 

Friday: Cloudy and breezy. High: 81

 

 

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Discussion:

Warm temperatures and clear conditions will stick around Wednesday and Thursday before we shift into a more active weather period. Increasing clouds and gusty winds on Friday will eventually turn to showers and even isolated thunderstorms heading into Friday night and the weekend.

- Shaw

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Forecasters: Shaw, Travis

Date Issued: 11/2/2022 11:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday before a major pattern shift takes place with the passing of a longwave (LW) trough and associated frontal system. Exact timing of frontal passage and precipitation, however, is still uncertain. The NAM depicts the formation of a closed upper-level low, which results in slower progression of the system; conversely, the GFS solution, which lacks a closed low, advances faster (bringing precipitation chances to NW MO by Friday evening.) For this forecast, the GFS was more heavily relied upon due to the faster system progression. Regardless, future shifts will want to watch how the system evolves and take into consideration the possible development of a closed low when forecasting.

An upper-level low and associated cloud cover are moving out of central MO Wednesday morning ahead of an amplifying ridge, which will result in warmer temperatures and clear conditions this afternoon. Westerly flow associated with this ridge will shift more to SW flow as the LW trough, which will become neutrally to negatively tilted by the end of the period, approaches MO. The GFS is faster and more intense with upper-level divergence in central and western MO by Friday evening, indicating the possibility of isolated showers ahead of the cold front. 

Strong southerly flow and moisture transport vectors in the low levels will lead to a rapid increase in moisture and temperature across the forecast area, especially heading into Friday. Highs, which are already unseasonably warm, will be near record levels on Friday due to the strong v-component of wind and resultant WAA. By late-morning Friday, areas of saturation will lead to increasing cloud cover, though this isn't expected to keep temperatures down because of the aforementioned low level jet.

Low-level moisture and WAA associated with the strong LLJ are present throughout the entire forecast period, hence the warming trend with highs and increased humidity (with values exceeding 60F by 0Z Friday.) Additionally, strong winds (gusting from 30-40 mph) will be possible especially Friday afternoon into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens over MO ahead of surface low pressure.

- Shaw