Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday: Increasing clouds. High: 76
Thursday Night: Showers. Low: 36
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Discussion:
A major shift in the weather is expected as a cold front passes through this evening, bringing showers to Columbia tonight and cold temperatures to follow. Enjoy a warm Thursday in the 70s before temperatures drop into the low 40s/upper 30s this weekend. Nights will be even colder as lows are expected to reach the mid 30s to low 20s. It might be a good time to dig out those winter clothes, stay warm tigers!=================================================================
Forecasters: Sallot, Sausen, Thomas, Baker
Date Issued: 11/10/2022 9:00 AM CST
We decided to use the NAM for this forecast, as the GFS had a hard time picking up on the temperature gradient due to SW flow.
A strong upper level low is currently centered over Montana/Wyoming, and its associated jet streak showed some slight weakening as it passed over the Rockies. Associated divergence is high with the very fast jet streak (110-120kts) as well. Also worth noting is a small shortwave trough between Oklahoma and Texas. At the 500mb level, vorticity maximas are slightly behind the frontal zone, centered over Colorado and Montana. Low level moisture is rather plentiful, both over the Upper Midwest and Texas. Hurricane Nicole has made landfall, and its’ associated cloudiness and showers extend all the way out to Ohio/Tennessee.
Our main concern is significant rainfall totals with the passage of this cold front Thursday evening into Friday, as well as associated cold temperatures following it. Low level moisture leads ahead of the front in Missouri today , supporting some scattered cloudiness evident on satellite imagery, though this pre-frontal area of moisture should burn off later today. One main concern is the quickly-moving Tropical Storm Nicole and its’ associated wind fields, which do seem to interact with the frontal system ,causing it to stall a bit longer than it normally would over Missouri. The highest amount of moisture over the forecast area looks to be between 00 and 15z on Friday, and the 540 line looks to follow well behind the RH, so odds are we’ll escape any wintry precipitation. Looking at our soundings, CAPE values are rather slim as well (>500j/kg) , so thunder seems to be a very slim probability too. With a deep moisture layer around 6z Friday, fairly steady precipitation should fall, amounting to an estimated 0.6 inches, though 850 temps stay above freezing for most of the period. Another feature of note is that a second trough axis does form behind the frontally-associated axis. Without any moisture this second trough shouldn’t carry any precip, but an associated secondary increase in cold air advection is reflected.
-Thomas
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